Fridays P&L: GBP 1,200
Fridays Booze: 8 pints of Stella Artois, 1 bottle Tinto Pesquera 1994
What a strange day. The markets continue to believe that everything is good. A year on in and the crisis is over. Yet something doesn't sit right. Was this financial crisis so temporary? Could it really be solved by just injecting unlimited capital into the banking system? The politicians in the UK have been on holiday and seem focused on dealing with the troublesome issue of their expenses when they return. The part conferences have shown that deep down and despite whatever promises they make, non of the politicians have any idea how to address the gaping whole in our national finances. The American Politicians are basking in the reflected glory of Obama and his Nobel prize, (for which he was nominated after just 11 days in office).
Its the Americans I feel sorriest for. They seem unable to accept their new role in the world and hope things will return to normal, but how can it? The securities houses of Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Merril Lynch, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are all gone. OK, they still exist apart from Lehmans, but they have all been forced into unfavorable mergers or converted into FDIC regulated bank holding companies. These companies that survived the depression, both world wars and all the recessions of the last century just collapsed under the weight of their own hubris and greed. The same thing happened here in the UK. RBS, the biggest British bank with total assets exceeding the GDP of the country floundered, so did HBOS, the biggest mortgage lender in the country. These banks were rescued at an unknown cost, (the full cost to the country will never be revealed), because what was the alternative? The banks not opening the next day, people unable to withdraw cash from ATM's salaries not being paid into bank accounts, businesses unable to pay suppliers. In effect the complete meltdown of the modern society we have grown to depend on. We were literally hours away from this happening. and yet when I walk around London most people seem unaware.
It isn't the case with a lot of the trading community, I spoke to a few ex-colleagues who have come close to committing suicide. Its easy to distract the general public with stories of huge bonuses and yes, many investment bankers and traders earned huge salaries, but these were earned, contracts were established and generally bonuses were similar in percentage terms to top salespeople in other fields. Just the revenues were exceptional. Anyway, the bubble has been reinflated, but the future consequences are unknown. One thing is for sure, things will never be the same again.
Saturday, 10 October 2009
Thursday, 13 August 2009
Wednesdays P&L: GBP923
Wednesdays booze: 3 bottles of Australian white wine, 4 cans of Carlsberg Premium, 3 large Vodka & Tonic
Read the market completely wrong yesterday but managed to salvage something. I anticipated another sell-off yesterday. I don't pay huge amounts of attention to charts, although I should as most market participants are just sheep these days, blindly following the buy and sell indicators generated by whatever charting method they use. I am more interested in interpreting what I see happening around me and I still see hard times coming. I am not surprised there has been an uptick in the markets, the sheer amount of liquidity that has been pumped in has to have some effect. What surprises me is that people are not saying, "well hang on a minute...isn't this what got us into this mess in the first place"? I am not much of a student having left school at 16 but I always was interested in history and the belief that if you don't understand the past you cannot learn from it. The finance industry seems hopelessly unable to learn from its mistakes. After wasn't it only 2 months ago people were getting upset by the rewards bankers earned and just this week Citibank has had to defend its decision to pay an oil trader USD100million and our own RBS, (surely the UK version of Citi), has announced it is hiring a bond trader from Merrill Lynch for a minimum of GBP7million. There is no fuss about this, because of course the public has moved on to fresh outrages. All the time the US and the UK are printing money hoping that things will return to normal. The US knows that the enormous debt it has is not really its problem, it is China, Japan and the rest of the world. Of course America should lose its AAA rating. Of course the dollar should tank but if that happened the losers would be the holders of the debt. The UK is no better its own debt situation is nothing more than a ponzi scheme. It can only end badly.
What do I know if these recent events had happened when I was still working for a bank, I would have genuinely thought the global economy was coming to an end but instead things go on as normal. People go to ATM's and withdraw their cash - it doesn't matter to them if the Nat West is owned by RBS or the government. The banks continue to send out letters to people behind on their mortgages or credit cards admonishing them for imprudent borrowing and poor financial management with no hint of irony. When this first happened in the UK. Northern Rock should have been shuttered and the people who routinely sign repossession letters or say "computer says no" should have been made redundant. OK it wasn't their fault that the company collapsed they are just tiny cogs in a far bigger machine but the effects of a few thousand losing their jobs would have been significant and also given us a truer picture of the real situation at the banks. The depositors at the bank should have received the protection they were entitled to if they had more than that amount then that is their fault. It is not as though there were a shortage of alternatives to deposit their money. Instead we have the bizarre situation where the banks are being supported by the very people they have no hesitation in sending the bailiffs for. All the time the excess liquidity is building up in the system and when the banks finally find themselves confident to lend again, they may find there are a lot less people with jobs to be able to afford loans from them.
Wednesdays booze: 3 bottles of Australian white wine, 4 cans of Carlsberg Premium, 3 large Vodka & Tonic
Read the market completely wrong yesterday but managed to salvage something. I anticipated another sell-off yesterday. I don't pay huge amounts of attention to charts, although I should as most market participants are just sheep these days, blindly following the buy and sell indicators generated by whatever charting method they use. I am more interested in interpreting what I see happening around me and I still see hard times coming. I am not surprised there has been an uptick in the markets, the sheer amount of liquidity that has been pumped in has to have some effect. What surprises me is that people are not saying, "well hang on a minute...isn't this what got us into this mess in the first place"? I am not much of a student having left school at 16 but I always was interested in history and the belief that if you don't understand the past you cannot learn from it. The finance industry seems hopelessly unable to learn from its mistakes. After wasn't it only 2 months ago people were getting upset by the rewards bankers earned and just this week Citibank has had to defend its decision to pay an oil trader USD100million and our own RBS, (surely the UK version of Citi), has announced it is hiring a bond trader from Merrill Lynch for a minimum of GBP7million. There is no fuss about this, because of course the public has moved on to fresh outrages. All the time the US and the UK are printing money hoping that things will return to normal. The US knows that the enormous debt it has is not really its problem, it is China, Japan and the rest of the world. Of course America should lose its AAA rating. Of course the dollar should tank but if that happened the losers would be the holders of the debt. The UK is no better its own debt situation is nothing more than a ponzi scheme. It can only end badly.
What do I know if these recent events had happened when I was still working for a bank, I would have genuinely thought the global economy was coming to an end but instead things go on as normal. People go to ATM's and withdraw their cash - it doesn't matter to them if the Nat West is owned by RBS or the government. The banks continue to send out letters to people behind on their mortgages or credit cards admonishing them for imprudent borrowing and poor financial management with no hint of irony. When this first happened in the UK. Northern Rock should have been shuttered and the people who routinely sign repossession letters or say "computer says no" should have been made redundant. OK it wasn't their fault that the company collapsed they are just tiny cogs in a far bigger machine but the effects of a few thousand losing their jobs would have been significant and also given us a truer picture of the real situation at the banks. The depositors at the bank should have received the protection they were entitled to if they had more than that amount then that is their fault. It is not as though there were a shortage of alternatives to deposit their money. Instead we have the bizarre situation where the banks are being supported by the very people they have no hesitation in sending the bailiffs for. All the time the excess liquidity is building up in the system and when the banks finally find themselves confident to lend again, they may find there are a lot less people with jobs to be able to afford loans from them.
Saturday, 11 July 2009
Fridays P&L: GBP 2,000
Fridays booze: 2 bottles of Tinto Pesquera 1994, half a litre of co-ops finest triple distilled vodka, 2 bottles of Stella Artois.
Back down to 2 grand for the day - don't blame me, blame these cocksucker traders that have sucked the volatility out of the market. Maybe they are scared, don't see why the government seems to have given them carte blanche to do whatever they want.
Whats on my mind today? Well apart from the fact that my ex girlfriend who's family is literally worth hundreds of millions of dollars has decided to persecute me for a small loan of USD 75,000 she made to me, all because I have a new girlfriend. I guess what I am wondering about is the exit of GM from bankruptcy protection. The market seems divided over this. The pro-Obama types say that the new lean and mean GM will compete globally. The Republicans say its amazing what you can do with involuntary contributions from tax-payers. I am inclined to agree with the last opinion. GM is a shambles and I wouldn't buy one of their pony automobiles for all the tea in China, no matter how many rap stars drive around in their Escalades. As far as I can see the only people who actually buy GM cars are retirees in Florida and didn't they just shaft all of those when they were under chapter 11. Look for another wave of SCDO defaults as a result of the GM bankruptcy. While we are on the subject Bradford & Bingly triggered credit default swaps by not paying an expecter interest amount. Seeing as they are owned by Her Majesty's Government, well the shit part is, they rather generously gave away any workable assets to Santander for two vouchers for a Grande Latte at Starbucks, doesn't that mean that the UK is technically in default? Surely those wise level-headed people at Moody's and S&P have noticed this.
Fridays booze: 2 bottles of Tinto Pesquera 1994, half a litre of co-ops finest triple distilled vodka, 2 bottles of Stella Artois.
Back down to 2 grand for the day - don't blame me, blame these cocksucker traders that have sucked the volatility out of the market. Maybe they are scared, don't see why the government seems to have given them carte blanche to do whatever they want.
Whats on my mind today? Well apart from the fact that my ex girlfriend who's family is literally worth hundreds of millions of dollars has decided to persecute me for a small loan of USD 75,000 she made to me, all because I have a new girlfriend. I guess what I am wondering about is the exit of GM from bankruptcy protection. The market seems divided over this. The pro-Obama types say that the new lean and mean GM will compete globally. The Republicans say its amazing what you can do with involuntary contributions from tax-payers. I am inclined to agree with the last opinion. GM is a shambles and I wouldn't buy one of their pony automobiles for all the tea in China, no matter how many rap stars drive around in their Escalades. As far as I can see the only people who actually buy GM cars are retirees in Florida and didn't they just shaft all of those when they were under chapter 11. Look for another wave of SCDO defaults as a result of the GM bankruptcy. While we are on the subject Bradford & Bingly triggered credit default swaps by not paying an expecter interest amount. Seeing as they are owned by Her Majesty's Government, well the shit part is, they rather generously gave away any workable assets to Santander for two vouchers for a Grande Latte at Starbucks, doesn't that mean that the UK is technically in default? Surely those wise level-headed people at Moody's and S&P have noticed this.
Thursday, 9 July 2009
Todays P&L: GBP 2,750
Todays booze: 3 litres of dry cider, 3 large Vodkas, 1 bottle of Vega Sicillia Unico 1989
Well so much for staying sober, at least I am not back on the Absinthe...yet. I am making a living salary again at last, although you can't really call it that untill you average over £5k per day for at least several months. Why the turn around in my trading fortunes? I am not sure, I assume it has something to do with the fact that I no longer have any faith in capitalism anymore. The US that bastion of capitalism has proven itself to be no better than the previous holder of that title, the UK.
America is allowing its manufacturing heartland to die while it allows the banking sector to openly mock the gowernment by accepting TARPS money and then when the conditions seem a little uncomfortable duck out of it. Meanwhile the Obama sideshow is still wandering around the globe accepting the plaudits for being the first black President. Well done mate, but sooner or later you are going to actually address the problems affecting your nation, which seems in terminal decline.
I should be happy, I have a girlfriend in my life as well as a few ex-girlfriends trying to get back in contact with me. However happiness is not a state I am naturally comfortable with. I am still unwell but I have given up worrying about that. My GP who also happens to be an MP has made it quite clear that his expenses are far more of a concern to him than the health of his patients. If you are a drunk, by the way, don't ever admit it to the quacks. As far as they are concerned, once you admit to being on the grog every illness that you may have is explained by your intake of booze!
Todays booze: 3 litres of dry cider, 3 large Vodkas, 1 bottle of Vega Sicillia Unico 1989
Well so much for staying sober, at least I am not back on the Absinthe...yet. I am making a living salary again at last, although you can't really call it that untill you average over £5k per day for at least several months. Why the turn around in my trading fortunes? I am not sure, I assume it has something to do with the fact that I no longer have any faith in capitalism anymore. The US that bastion of capitalism has proven itself to be no better than the previous holder of that title, the UK.
America is allowing its manufacturing heartland to die while it allows the banking sector to openly mock the gowernment by accepting TARPS money and then when the conditions seem a little uncomfortable duck out of it. Meanwhile the Obama sideshow is still wandering around the globe accepting the plaudits for being the first black President. Well done mate, but sooner or later you are going to actually address the problems affecting your nation, which seems in terminal decline.
I should be happy, I have a girlfriend in my life as well as a few ex-girlfriends trying to get back in contact with me. However happiness is not a state I am naturally comfortable with. I am still unwell but I have given up worrying about that. My GP who also happens to be an MP has made it quite clear that his expenses are far more of a concern to him than the health of his patients. If you are a drunk, by the way, don't ever admit it to the quacks. As far as they are concerned, once you admit to being on the grog every illness that you may have is explained by your intake of booze!
Monday, 8 June 2009
Fraud
Todays P&L: GBP800
Todays booze: 4 litres of dry cider
I feel like a fraud. I started writing this to document my inevitable self-destruction and my general ambivalance to the world and what has happened? I have survived an emergency hospitalisation and an ex-girlfriend has got back in touch with me after fifteen years. Why anyone would want to meet me again I am not sure, one things for sure I am not the man I used to be - but then who of us is? So I guess my rocketride to death, without actually commiting suicide, (its that whole Catholic thing), has been put on hold for a while. I might even get serious about trading again, rather than just making enough money to get battered. All depressing stuff - but look on the bright side, she might realise her mistake and ditch me. Giving me a real reason to wallow in self-pity.
On a brighter note, I caught a television program called Elvis - Return to Tuplo, the other day. Man I forgot how great he was! The boy could sing and he could move. Forget about all that talent show crap that is in the charts today and check out vintage Elvis in 1956. No Echoplex Harmonisers or Lexicon Reverbs then. Just the voice and the microphone. I know it is popular to slate Elvis now and say he stole black music but John Lennon said it best, "before Elvis, there was nothing".
Todays booze: 4 litres of dry cider
I feel like a fraud. I started writing this to document my inevitable self-destruction and my general ambivalance to the world and what has happened? I have survived an emergency hospitalisation and an ex-girlfriend has got back in touch with me after fifteen years. Why anyone would want to meet me again I am not sure, one things for sure I am not the man I used to be - but then who of us is? So I guess my rocketride to death, without actually commiting suicide, (its that whole Catholic thing), has been put on hold for a while. I might even get serious about trading again, rather than just making enough money to get battered. All depressing stuff - but look on the bright side, she might realise her mistake and ditch me. Giving me a real reason to wallow in self-pity.
On a brighter note, I caught a television program called Elvis - Return to Tuplo, the other day. Man I forgot how great he was! The boy could sing and he could move. Forget about all that talent show crap that is in the charts today and check out vintage Elvis in 1956. No Echoplex Harmonisers or Lexicon Reverbs then. Just the voice and the microphone. I know it is popular to slate Elvis now and say he stole black music but John Lennon said it best, "before Elvis, there was nothing".
Friday, 26 December 2008
Todays P&L: Nothing at all
Todays booze: 3 large Vodka & Tonics - its only lunch time, I am just getting started!
So that was Christmas. Bah, Humbug! I didn't find myself all overwhelmed with love and peace for my fellow man and I have realised that being unable to trade for even 48 hours is causing me serious problems. Another example of my addicitve personality I guess. The UK government seems to be wholeheartedly supportive of the gambling industry, although I suspect they will turn on it just as they did with cigarettes and booze after exploiting it for all the tax revenue they can.
I am wondering why customers here in the UK even bother repaying their debts to the banks, which are largely nationalised now anyway. Even the banks that haven't taken Government aid are exchanging their worthless securitised paper for gilts! The banks seem to be under the impression that it was just bad luck and circumstances beyond their control that caused these huge losses. Funny that when you use that argument for being unable to repay your credit card debt the banks look the other way and slap a CCJ on you quicker than you can say Ebeneezer Scrooge. I remember those halcyon days when bankers attracted press because of their lifestyles. Anyone remember the 3 Barclays Capital Markets Risk analyts that ran up a £40,000 plus lunch bill at Petrus? The unkind press attention ensured that the lost their jobs bit of a shame really, Barclays really could use some decent risk managers now!
The financial climate has changed so much for anyone who remembers how it used to be, If I had told you two years ago that the 5 Wall Street houses of the holy would no longer exist and that AIG and Fannie May and Freddie Mac would be nationalised I would have been laughed out of the room. And the US, once a capitalist nation apparently, would be prepared to bail-out its worthless industrial titans whatever the cost. It is unthinkable and the scam only works as long as nobody calls on the US to show its cards. We are in a situation where investors are so scared that they actually are paying to lend money to the US. Forget the effects of inflation, 2 year notes have a 98 handle on their yield. The US is effecively printing money without any fiscal responsibility - this can only end badly.
Todays booze: 3 large Vodka & Tonics - its only lunch time, I am just getting started!
So that was Christmas. Bah, Humbug! I didn't find myself all overwhelmed with love and peace for my fellow man and I have realised that being unable to trade for even 48 hours is causing me serious problems. Another example of my addicitve personality I guess. The UK government seems to be wholeheartedly supportive of the gambling industry, although I suspect they will turn on it just as they did with cigarettes and booze after exploiting it for all the tax revenue they can.
I am wondering why customers here in the UK even bother repaying their debts to the banks, which are largely nationalised now anyway. Even the banks that haven't taken Government aid are exchanging their worthless securitised paper for gilts! The banks seem to be under the impression that it was just bad luck and circumstances beyond their control that caused these huge losses. Funny that when you use that argument for being unable to repay your credit card debt the banks look the other way and slap a CCJ on you quicker than you can say Ebeneezer Scrooge. I remember those halcyon days when bankers attracted press because of their lifestyles. Anyone remember the 3 Barclays Capital Markets Risk analyts that ran up a £40,000 plus lunch bill at Petrus? The unkind press attention ensured that the lost their jobs bit of a shame really, Barclays really could use some decent risk managers now!
The financial climate has changed so much for anyone who remembers how it used to be, If I had told you two years ago that the 5 Wall Street houses of the holy would no longer exist and that AIG and Fannie May and Freddie Mac would be nationalised I would have been laughed out of the room. And the US, once a capitalist nation apparently, would be prepared to bail-out its worthless industrial titans whatever the cost. It is unthinkable and the scam only works as long as nobody calls on the US to show its cards. We are in a situation where investors are so scared that they actually are paying to lend money to the US. Forget the effects of inflation, 2 year notes have a 98 handle on their yield. The US is effecively printing money without any fiscal responsibility - this can only end badly.
Thursday, 25 December 2008
Todays P&L: Hey, it's Christmas
Todays Booze: 1 litre Russian Standard Vodke, 8 pints of dry Cider, 3 cans of Stella Artois
Ok, so the doctors orders didn't last, but you know I feel better than I have in ages being back on the hard stuff. The quacks have said I am dying anyway, so what difference does it make? I have been to Church and recieved absolution, now I just have to make myself worthy.
As far as the markets go, well over December I have had a wild, wild ride. the most I earned was £5,000 in one day and the most I lost £3,000 so I guess I am up. Despite my loving this crazy volatility I am a little disturbed. I genuinely believe that we are heading into a depression that will easily rival that great depression. Even if the clowns in charge mange to band aid things up for a while, the opening of the taps of liquidity have unleashed a dragon of inflation that will flex its coils around us. Bernanke, Paulson, Darling and the likes are only interested in buying time so the problems are those of the next guy in the job. I pity poor Obama because I genuinely believe he will be held responsible for a collapse in the US economy that has nothing to do with him.
The myth of globalisation is becoming apparant all to quickly as the USA and Europe sink into recession, the idea that the BRIC, (Brazil, Russia, India, China), countries will take up the baton is being exposed as a cruel joke. All of these countries are unstable, Russia is of course the joker in the pack. It defaulted in 1998 and I remember a Credit Suisse banker saying to me "we will never trade with these clowns again" but the lure of easy money was too much. Now a country that had the 3rd largest foreign currency reserves has expended nearly 40% in a couple of months trying to defend the Ruble...pathetic. And as for the middle-east forget it. Those fools have squandered their resources quicker than a drunk duke on his birthday. Saudi and Dubai have been chasing which country had the highest skyscraper, the way that in previous oil-booms they chased Park Lane hookers and US or European jet fighters.
So what next? My belief is get ready for the hard times, I don't know how many of us are prepared for in-between years economics. Who am I to speak, I can't even change a plug and when I lived in Indonesia and Thailand I had maids and workers to do everything for me. I did see this coming though, and while everyone is hoping for better times next year, I can only see that the fiscal irresponsibility has placed any bright light further away.
Todays Booze: 1 litre Russian Standard Vodke, 8 pints of dry Cider, 3 cans of Stella Artois
Ok, so the doctors orders didn't last, but you know I feel better than I have in ages being back on the hard stuff. The quacks have said I am dying anyway, so what difference does it make? I have been to Church and recieved absolution, now I just have to make myself worthy.
As far as the markets go, well over December I have had a wild, wild ride. the most I earned was £5,000 in one day and the most I lost £3,000 so I guess I am up. Despite my loving this crazy volatility I am a little disturbed. I genuinely believe that we are heading into a depression that will easily rival that great depression. Even if the clowns in charge mange to band aid things up for a while, the opening of the taps of liquidity have unleashed a dragon of inflation that will flex its coils around us. Bernanke, Paulson, Darling and the likes are only interested in buying time so the problems are those of the next guy in the job. I pity poor Obama because I genuinely believe he will be held responsible for a collapse in the US economy that has nothing to do with him.
The myth of globalisation is becoming apparant all to quickly as the USA and Europe sink into recession, the idea that the BRIC, (Brazil, Russia, India, China), countries will take up the baton is being exposed as a cruel joke. All of these countries are unstable, Russia is of course the joker in the pack. It defaulted in 1998 and I remember a Credit Suisse banker saying to me "we will never trade with these clowns again" but the lure of easy money was too much. Now a country that had the 3rd largest foreign currency reserves has expended nearly 40% in a couple of months trying to defend the Ruble...pathetic. And as for the middle-east forget it. Those fools have squandered their resources quicker than a drunk duke on his birthday. Saudi and Dubai have been chasing which country had the highest skyscraper, the way that in previous oil-booms they chased Park Lane hookers and US or European jet fighters.
So what next? My belief is get ready for the hard times, I don't know how many of us are prepared for in-between years economics. Who am I to speak, I can't even change a plug and when I lived in Indonesia and Thailand I had maids and workers to do everything for me. I did see this coming though, and while everyone is hoping for better times next year, I can only see that the fiscal irresponsibility has placed any bright light further away.
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