Thursday 25 December 2008

Todays P&L: Hey, it's Christmas
Todays Booze: 1 litre Russian Standard Vodke, 8 pints of dry Cider, 3 cans of Stella Artois

Ok, so the doctors orders didn't last, but you know I feel better than I have in ages being back on the hard stuff. The quacks have said I am dying anyway, so what difference does it make? I have been to Church and recieved absolution, now I just have to make myself worthy.

As far as the markets go, well over December I have had a wild, wild ride. the most I earned was £5,000 in one day and the most I lost £3,000 so I guess I am up. Despite my loving this crazy volatility I am a little disturbed. I genuinely believe that we are heading into a depression that will easily rival that great depression. Even if the clowns in charge mange to band aid things up for a while, the opening of the taps of liquidity have unleashed a dragon of inflation that will flex its coils around us. Bernanke, Paulson, Darling and the likes are only interested in buying time so the problems are those of the next guy in the job. I pity poor Obama because I genuinely believe he will be held responsible for a collapse in the US economy that has nothing to do with him.

The myth of globalisation is becoming apparant all to quickly as the USA and Europe sink into recession, the idea that the BRIC, (Brazil, Russia, India, China), countries will take up the baton is being exposed as a cruel joke. All of these countries are unstable, Russia is of course the joker in the pack. It defaulted in 1998 and I remember a Credit Suisse banker saying to me "we will never trade with these clowns again" but the lure of easy money was too much. Now a country that had the 3rd largest foreign currency reserves has expended nearly 40% in a couple of months trying to defend the Ruble...pathetic. And as for the middle-east forget it. Those fools have squandered their resources quicker than a drunk duke on his birthday. Saudi and Dubai have been chasing which country had the highest skyscraper, the way that in previous oil-booms they chased Park Lane hookers and US or European jet fighters.

So what next? My belief is get ready for the hard times, I don't know how many of us are prepared for in-between years economics. Who am I to speak, I can't even change a plug and when I lived in Indonesia and Thailand I had maids and workers to do everything for me. I did see this coming though, and while everyone is hoping for better times next year, I can only see that the fiscal irresponsibility has placed any bright light further away.

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