Thursday 31 December 2009

Lucky in Love

Today's P&L: Pah, who cares about money?

Today's Booze: Too early to tell, but it could get ugly

So this is it, New Years Eve. The most important day of the year for most Scottish people. Actually I guess it isn't nowadays. Maybe its more of a thing for us Scots in exile. My family always took it very seriously. Before we split apart from each other through necessity, I remember first footing since I was a child. Being very tall for my age and having jet black hair, I remember always being thrust outside the house before New Years Bells clutching coal, silver and whiskey. To me it always seemed like the next day was like a clean slate, the mistakes of the previous year, surprisingly enough I had always made plenty, were forgotten. Other kids at school often wondered why I ignored past fights or arguments. Its always been that way for me, although as I have grown older my personal experience has changed from raucous fun to more reflection as I consider what I have done. I don't make resolutions, well with one exception, I always resolve to be a better person than I have been - even though I know I will always let myself down.

So what do I have to reflect upon this year? Sure its been a low point, well these last three years actually have been plumbing the depths for me. My drinking whilst still out of control has got better. It will never end completely. I drink the way I live, there is an emptiness inside me that sometimes I feel will never be filled. its the same with relationships, the girl that's knocking around with me now should really step back and think about why she split up with me all those years ago.I haven't got any better. Anyway, she is likely to come and visit me this evening, so I won't be able to get completely out of hand with the booze. She will probably bring over the caviar and blinis - she knows I like Beluga but I would be happy enough with Sevruga and even though she watches what I am drinking like a hawk, I know she will bring some decent whiskey - probably Talisker, that's her favorite.

Anyway. Time to get to it, see the end of the year - fuck, the end of the decade. Happy New Year to everyone, I hope you all have a fantastic time.

Saturday 26 December 2009

Easy Come, Easy Go

Today's P&L: GBP 0.00

Today's Booze: 2 large Remy Martin XO, 1 bottle of house Red from some Tapas place in Guadamar, 3 pints of Aspalls cider, 3 large Oban whiskeys


So this is Christmas - again, last time I didn't know if I would see another and yet here I am and very little has changed. I am still a terminal alcoholic but I have had nearly a year of a quite intense relationship. The kind of relationship I had supposed I couldn't form or at least had no need for anymore. Of course, I feel my life is more dramatic, everyone does. We are all the stars of our own private soap operas. The girlfriend was back again. She shamed me by buying me a gift, even though she knows that I don't really give or receive gifts on Christmas. It was a limited edition Montblanc pen, a percentage of the ludicrous price goes to Unicef so I guess that sates her seemingly endless desire to help the needy. I often wonder why she is so driven to help other people as she professes not to believe in God. She doesn't identify herself as an atheist though and when drunk it is quite clear she believes in something. She has been in a similar position to me in that she has been given very little chance of surviving, although hers is in no way self-inflicted. It seems so tragic to me that people believe that they die and that is it, I mean sure maybe they are correct but its a bit bleak isn't it? Whats the point in anything if in the relative blink of an eye the human race and all we achieve will be forgotten about. Whats the point in having children or in saving the planet - it ultimately won't make any difference. If all we have is the here and now, why don't more people just take what they want, why would someone like the girlfriend bother to help other people? She obviously doesn't believe she will get some great reward so I wonder what motivates her.

Anyway, I have a liver biopsy coming up soon, so perhaps my answer to what comes next will be revealed. I am pretty sure that I won't take a liver transplant if its available. I just feel that self-inflicted damage like mine shouldn't be treated at the expense of those more deserving. Still I am a cowardly son of a bitch, so I may change my mind. I shall go and watch my favorite movie, Collateral after posting this; "guy gets on the subway here in LA and dies - think anyone will notice"? Still can't believe its going to be a new decade soon and shortly afterward my fortieth birthday.

Tuesday 22 December 2009

Violence is not the Answer

Yesterdays P&L: GBP 140.00

Yesterdays Booze: 1 liter of cheap French Red, 6 large bottles of Cobra Lager

Trading these markets is meaningless, I just don't have anything else to do.

Rather interested in this story about the Asian guy who received a custodial sentence for beating a guy to a pulp after he broke into his house. It seems that his response was heavy handed but lets clarify this, if it had happened in America the guy would be dead. American often seem bemused that in this country people who trespass onto your property to commit theft or rape or murder are entitled to protection. I have to admit I tend to agree. If you don't want to get hurt then don't break into someones house and tie up their wife - it really is that simple.

My ex-girlfriend was arrested not too long ago because, while she was out shopping, a Somalian shoved her and stole her handbag. She had a bottle of wine in her hand and bashed the guy over the back of the head, cutting him rather badly. She retrieved her belongings and gave him a few boots for his trouble. While this was going on in a busy West London street, some do-gooder at the bus stop phoned the police and reported her. Didn't report the theft mind you, just the five foot eight inch ex for brutalizing the poor six foot plus mugger. Upon being interviewed at the police station she was told he had been hospitalized, to which she replied "good - serves him right". Now if I had been with her and beaten the guy, I would be serving time for a hate crime, but as she is South East Asian, its difficult to charge her with racism.

On another occasion, some years back, my father who is hard as nails was caught on CCTV in Southwark/Bermondsy. Four fellows tried to mug him and after flooring one of them with a single punch the others ran off. My father would have probably been in a bit of trouble if the four young black men in their early twenties had been prepared to press charges and admit that they had ran from a fifty eight year old, five foot seven inch man.

The mistake the attackers made in both cases was not knowing their victim. My ex girlfriend is from Jakarta, which is nothing like the post cards you see from Land of smiles, Thailand or even spiritual Bali. She is quite a tough person and comes from a place where many of her community were slaughtered by the ethnic Indonesians. She is unlikely to back down from someone who is brave enough to attack a single woman. My father has always been hard as nails and was dealing out beatings in Govan and Kelvinhaugh when he was just a youth and I guess these guys just caught him on a bad day.

I suppose if you fancy your chances as a street criminal, the moral is either learn to pick pockets or pick your victims.

Friday 18 December 2009

Come Fly With Me

Yesterdays P&L: GBP 480.30

Yesterdays Booze: 6 Pints of dry cider, 2 Stolichnaya Black Russians, 4 large Remy Martin XO.

Finally some profit! I was beginning to think I had lost my touch. My bearish viewpoint was justified as a small short position on the Dow 30 came good. I am incredibly tempted by cable, (GBP/USD), at 1.6177/79 and gold at 1106.2/7 so may be forced to risking more of my dwindling resources.

I wonder what to make of this British Airways strike. I am against it as I often need to fly to Alicante and they are the only airline that does a business class service. I just can't be bothered to fly Easyjet/Ryan Air, even if it is for only two and a half hours or so. Also I think British Airways cabin crew get a pretty good deal compared to other airline staff. So I don't really see why they are striking, having said that how can a court overturn a strike ballot? Does that mean that BA is now justified in sacking staff members for threatening to strike? It just seems excessively robber baron behavior.

The problem for BA staff is they lost the sympathy of the public by voting to go on strike at the busiest travel period of the year. Also no one has much sympathy for cabin crew, its not like its the hardest job in the world and at least in the UK we all know the kind of girls at school who would say I want to be an airline stewardess. Generally they were the pretty, self-obsessed girls who were right up their own arses. And many of them achieved it, you can see the attitude of them on the plane. It is quite obvious, even in business or first class that they are not really interested in the customers. They treat the job as an opportunity for them to travel and passengers are very much a distraction, Christ knows how the treat the economy class passengers? The BA staff are especially noted for their poor attitude to customers, although I have had some excellent service from some, usually male crew. I have only flown BA once long-haul and that was only to New York, so don't know what they are like on that service. When flying to Asia I almost always fly Emirates or Singapore which are both excellent. Gulf Air business class sucks so much I threw away the return segment of my ticket and went with Singapore Airlines.

Anyway after the holidays the airline will probably go on strike again, which will be financially ruinous. As the government has no interest in preserving British companies, ("like a tax-loss steel company with that peerage, guv? thanks for your donation"), no doubt they will allow BA to go under. Then take on the unfunded pension liabilities, ditch the loss making legacy routes, sell the landing slots at Heathrow and unwanted planes to other airlines. Then they can re brand the company as Britain's favorite discount airline, reemploy staff on a new contract basis. Gordon Brown can describe the new BA as an example of the innovative management style and flexibility that will enable British companies to compete in the future, although the company will be majority owned by Iberia, (all that press and nobody mentioned the Iberia merger). As the BA cabin crew adapt to working conditions that even O'Leary at Ryan Air regards as a bit tight fisted the crew can remember how hard done by they were at BA.

Thursday 17 December 2009

Telegraph Road

Yesterdays's P&L: GBP - 680.00

Yesterdays Booze: 1 bottle of non-descript Rose wine, (am I going Gay)? and 8 cans of Stella Artois


Been listening to this song a lot lately. As anyone who knows me knows, I am a huge fan of Mark Knopfler and love all of his music. This song is a little different, to me it represents lost dreams and forgotten promises. A subject I feel somewhat strongly about right now. For anyone who doesn't know the track, it tells the story of the growth of a town, the promise it held and the ultimate betrayal of the dreams we have. It is hardly original material just read any kitchen sink drama or talk to any kid arriving at Euston Station, the story is writ large.

Knopfler puts his cards on the table quite quickly as we hear about the man on a track, putting down his load where he thought it was the best.

"then came the churches then came the schools
then came the lawyers then came the rules
then came the trains and the trucks with their loads
and the dirty old track was the telegraph road"

"Then came the mines - then came the ore
then there was the hard times then there was a war
telegraph sang a song about the world outside
telegraph road got so deep and so wide
like a rolling river. . ."

Every City has a Telegraph Road, you probably know one in your town. In London I think of it as Commercial Street, in Bangkok Wireless Road but the great cities have more than one
The song then turns into a more personal narrative,

"I used to like to go to work but they shut it down
I've got a right to go to work but there's no work here to be found
yes and they say we're gonna have to pay what's owed
we're gonna have to reap from the seed that's been sowed
and the birds up on the wires and the telegraph poles
they can always fly away from this rain and this cold
you can here them singing out their telegraph code
all the way down the telegraph road"

One verse that sums up the dehumanizing feeling of losing your job. I grew up in a time when we are service economy. Nobody I know puts things together. We are bankers or spin doctors or salesmen or estate agents. I don't give a great deal of thought for the people in the cities of industry - why would I? Its something I have no experience of. Those people had jobs, they were sold a promise that turned out to be a lie. The verse after is quite sad and, to me, expresses loneliness as the narrator tries to stay with his wife. Nowadays its all to easy for people to separate just because things get hard. I have a friend whose wife has turned on him, perhaps when he needs her most. Even in my own dysfunctional family, when things got really bad, and I am talking bad enough that the police advised us against having contact with each other), we all did our best to pull together. Again this is hardly original - Springsteen, for one has made a career out of singing about men whose wives leave them during the hard times. I am sure there are plenty of other women out there that do the whole stand by your man thing, just that I have never met them. In my experience, they always let you down when you need them. Mind you I have little right to complain as I spend my relationships distancing myself and presenting myself as the kind of person that doesn't need anyone else. But that's the beauty of being a drunk, you can have some duality, its expected - on one hand you say "help me", but at the same time your eyes are saying "fuck you".

I am still getting killed in the markets, at this time of year trading volumes are so thin you can really get bullied by big speculators. They know that over-leveraged people like me can only take fifty or so point moves before we have to meet margin calls so they just outspend us. What else can I do though, I need to at least try to generate some income or I will have a very dry and cold Christmas and New Year - at least my doctor will be happy!

Monday 14 December 2009

Its Never Better To Be Safe Than Sorry

Today's P&L: GBP- 920.00

Today's Booze: 4 pints of Kronenbourg 1664, 2 bottles of cheap red wine, 2 large Remy Martin XO

I wonder who came up with the saying "better to be safe than sorry", Christ they must have had the most boring life ever, (or perhaps the best life ever and were speaking from personal experience). After all this time I still crave risk, not in some wank extreme sports way. I have nothing against that kind of thing but most of the people involved are such twats. If I climbed a mountain and was asked why I did it, I wouldn't say "because it was there" I would be more likely to say "to see what everything else looked like from up there". I am sure it is immensely satisfying to do something like that but what grates is the way those guys look down on other people. Like only a mountain climber/surfer/bungee jumper/sky diver can really understand. I am sure only an f-15 fighter pilot can understand what its like to smart bomb a building in Iraq, but that's another experience I can live without.

I have had plenty of adrenaline moments in my life, mostly involving firearms and me hightailing it out of there as quick as humanly possible. I suppose I have taken a few too many chances in my life, but how much is too many? I feel sorry for those that never have a chance, my ex works in a hospital and says that often as soon as the kids some in, they know they have three maybe six months. I can't imagine anything worse, never lived, never likely to. What is the purpose?

Sunday 13 December 2009

On The Edge

Todays P&L: GBP 0.00, I hate weekends

Todays Booze: 4 liters of organic cider, (very green), 2 large rum and cokes, very large Remy Martin XO.

The most recent ex-girlfriend got back in touch. Apparently I am still the love of her life, she probably should have thought about that before she left me, might get back in touch with her. If I were her I would stick with the billionaire, I mean it is coming up to Christmas after all. She isn't going to South America for her charity thing - turns out she can't take a Yellow fever vaccination due to her cancer therapy. So that's twenty grand down the drain then. Hope she doesn't pull out the old cancer card on me. My doctor says I have pancreatic cancer and probably secondary liver cancer but he seems relatively unsure about it. The ex has been through the proper wringer and had some treatments that make me think perhaps it would be better to just give in. Still she is a fighter. Everyone who has met her, has liked her. Except my brother, he seems to think I should never have any kind of a normal relationship. He treats me with a huge amount of disrespect but I think he secretly wants to be me, although obviously without the alcoholism, gambling addiction and suicidal tendencies. He is six years younger than me and I imagine in his mind I have always been fucked-up. He can't seem to see me in any other way than as an irresponsible twat clutching a bottle of vodka, (last time I ask him for a reference - I tell you). So the idea of me settling down with anyone seems bizarre to him, even if it is with someone with almost as many problems as me.

Saturday 12 December 2009

Fridays P&L: GBP-230.00

Fridays Booze: 1 bottle of decent Rioja, 4 Large vodka martinis, 6 pints of Stella Artois

Well after a brief brush with madness on the drinking front, I am returning to normal. At least as normal as I get. Haven't slept in a couple of days and am not coping well with the cold temperatures. Still, I have to put things in perspective. Lots of people have it worse than I do, but all us drunks love wallowing in self-pity. Giving me the opportunity to suffer is like giving a blank expenses claim to an MP. Talking of which why is Tony B suddenly coming out and admitting he would have supported the war on Iraq no matter what. Jesus, If George W had told him to jump off a cliff would he have? Do you think Blair still gets Christmas cards from George Bush Junior and if so does he get all excited and ask Cherie if his friend can come over for a sleepover? Ol' Cherie probably puts a stern face on and says "no way, every time you boys play together someone gets hurt".

Politics is a dirty business, makes me wonder why I didn't pay more attention before. Still banking takes some beating in the sleaze stakes. Its almost as if the last year didn't happen. Goldman Sachs are embarrassed by the bonuses they have to pay out and the trickle-down effect to the other banks is apparent. People are sitting aroung gladhanding themselves, telling each other what good traders they are for their triple digit returns. For those who don't know it works like this. When a bank makes provisions for a loss, either from its own capital or through a government bail-out. the asset price of the loss is written to as close to zero as possible and the loss booked against future tax payments. The dodgy position is either maintained on the books of the bank or sold to some greedy cash rich investor. For example after the Russian default in ninety eight Goldman Sachs phoned around the banks that they knew had very big positions and offered to buy all of their Russian books at less than ten cents in the dollar. If you keep the assets on the book and there is a recovery, as there almost always is you are effectively making a profit on anything above the write-down price. So if you wrote down your position in RBS to five cents in the dollar and the current market price is fifteen cents in the dollar you have made a two
hundred percent profit and really should feel that you deserve a big bonus for that. Bankers as a rule are reluctant to price assets they own when they are falling but cannot price them quickly enough when they are rising in value.

Saturday 5 December 2009

Changing Man

Today's P&L: Nothing - its Saturday

Today's Booze: Well no sleep last night so over the 2 days, finished 4 bottles of vodka and 6 pints of Stella, but its still early.

In a bit of pain today, broke my right ankle again. As far as I know that's the eighteenth time. It isn't a bad break . I can always tell, this is just above the foot, probably a hairline fracture. I shant go to the doctor as I hate hospitals anyway what will they do. God love the NHS they always try and help you but the consultant I spoke to last time said my right ankle is so necrotic that all they could do is rivet it together with no mobility and if I can take the pain I will be better off leaving it alone.

I broke my ankle going out to get a small birthday present for my uncle who is sixty five tomorrow. He is a good guy but I feel he never really had as much out of life as he should. Its easy for someone like me who has never had a problem with women to treat them like shit but someone like my uncle who is a far nicer person than I could ever be has missed out on the love that I take for granted. I often think about my life as if it is normal, but sometimes I realize that a normal life is all most people want - I doubt I will ever be happy no matter what I have. All my Uncle wants is to feel wanted. I love my uncle but could never tell him that, I can't say that to my parents or even my brother who, means the world to me. Well I say he means the world to me, but maybe its just because I owe him GBP seventy five thousand. In fact, Fuck it - I hate them all!

Friday 4 December 2009

Alone again

Just got a phone call from my current girlfriend. Or should I say ex-girlfriend.

She is off for a month to do her charity work in South America. She expects me to show some sadness that she won't be here over Christmas, (I couldn't care less about Christmas), New Year, (Important day for us Scots), and my birthday on the sixth. I fully support her charities espescially Medicines Sans Frontiers but I was feeling sorry for myself and asked her what the fuck she is doing with me. She said I need her help to be the man I used to be!

I don't mind many things but I'll not be pitied. So I told her to fuck right off. Call it bad timing, but I am single again and thats the way it should be.

Sultans of Swing

Fridays P&L: GBP- 6,240.00

Fridays Booze: 2 liters of Smirnoff Blue label Vodka


Bad day today. My love of the gold market bit me in the ass to the tune of GBP six thousand six hundred and sixty seven. Which was in no way offset by the GBP forty three hundred I made on the FTSE. I cant explain why I got it so wrong. The markets move like a beautiful ocean, sometimes they are calm, other times they roil with fury and you get smashed against the rocks. So thats what I did I got smashed.

In addition my maddest ex got back in touch with me by e-mail. This woman has caused me such grief in my life and is currently dating some New Zealander because "he looks like me". Nonsense of course, I haven't had a match since Elvis died. I have no idea why women do this, lets stay in touch thing. This woman would have killed me when I lived with her and she did break my nose when I was asleep. Yet she tells me I am the love of her life. Perhaps she should have thought about that when I was with her.

Why is this post called Sultans? well because I am listening to the song right now. Actually it is a bootleg of one of their performances in the eighties with the mellow saxophone that just makes me think of coffee bars in the west end of London. Mark Knopfler is an extraordinary musician his guitar says more in one note than most authors can ever achieve. If you don't know the Sultans of Swing it is a song about a pub band in London.

The beauty of the song is in the detail, lines like "and Harry doesn't mind if he doesn't make the scene, Hes got a daytime job, hes doing alright. He can play the honkeytonk like anything, saving it up for Friday night with the Sultans, the Sultans of Swing". This brings a tear to my eye. Back when I was a child, fifteen or so, I was in a band and really thought we would go all the way. Life got in the way, things changed - my guitarist got married and had children I turned into a sociopath. We all have dreams, don't you sometimes think "if only I had tried a bit harder", perhaps it could have worked out. I got a job in an investment bank, what if I had struggled a bit longer - fought a bit harder. Maybe I would have made it. Maybe I could have been one of the Sultans. Instead I took the easy option, I got a job that I never really wanted and a past I could have done without.

Don't get me wrong it wasn't all bad and I probably sound like a whining bitch, but I go to sleep every night, (or pass out - you never go to sleep when you are an alcoholic), thinking this isn't my life - It should have been someone elses.

Ok, I am feeling sorry for myself, I am nearly forty years old, the quack tells me I will be incredibly luck to see forty one and I feel utterly ambivalent about it. I am a Catholic, I believe in God why do I feel like he couldn't care less about me? I am sure anyone who reads this will say why should God care about me, but isn't that part of the deal - I fulfilled my side of the bargin. Ok I have sinned, (a lot) but don't I deserve absolution.

Anyway, I have a whole case of Vodka left - welcome to my self destruction.

The Year Of Living Dangerously

Thursdays P&L: GBP238.00

Thursdays Booze: 750cl of Absolut Blue Vodka, 3 large Remy Martin, 4 pints of Stella Artois

I love the movie The Year of Living Dangerously, possibly Mel Gibsons finest moment. When I lived in Indonesia during the Asian crisis I was drinking with an ex British army guy who had been in Borneo during that year, I asked him if Medan in ninety seven was more dangerous then Kalimantan back in sixty five. He said he thought so and neither of us should be here. it was a dangerous time and lots of people died. The thing I remember most is how you got used to chaos. If you saw large groups gathering you turned away and went another route, if you saw the Chinese shophouse owners pulling down the shutters you got off the streets and if you heard the sound of a bomb going off you just ignored it. I guess it was kind of like when I went to Belfast in the seventies. I was only a child then but I remember being amazed at how people just got on with life despite the obvious tension. Children played around the armored personnel carriers and ignored the helicopters flying above them.

My parents were use to this kind of thing, my father had spent all his live at sea since leaving Govan in Glasgow. My mother got caught up in The Angolan war when she was nine months pregnant. I was on the ship with them when I got arrested in Nigeria when I was fifteen. Kiri Kiri prison is no place for a white teenager, I can tell you that. My father predictably enough, got me out of that mess just as he did a week later when I got caught up in a riot in Douala in the Cameroons. I never went to University and often feel like I missed out, but at the same time I have had some amazing experiences and since I left home had this sort of reckless attitude that has provided me with so many opportunities.

So the business world has forgotten about Dubai already. Why not? It's only USD eighty billion of debt after all. There was a time when that would have been a lot of money - nowadays unless it is a trillion we barely notice. The Guardian says that the British tax payer has provided GBP Eight hundred and fifty billion to the banks or about GBP forty thousand per family. Think about that next time a bank gives you a charge for exceeding your overdraft or having insufficient funds for a direct debit. Why has the banking system in the UK failed so badly? Its a difficult question and one that really needs addressed. When I first started work the banks were recovering from the syndicated loans to South America. Walter Wriston, chairman of Citibank, had said "countries do not go bust" and at the time Citi had the money to write off the loans so we converted them into Brady Bonds that were nominally guaranteed by the US. Midland Bank in the UK, (remember them) nearly went bust after a disastrous acquisition Of Crocker Bank and were nearly taken over by Saatchi and Saatchi. Since then we have had the Japanese recession, the Local authority swaps scandal, the withdrawal from the ERM, the Mexican Tequilla crisis, Asian crisis, the collapse of LTCM and the Russian default. We have also had the dot com bubble and now the credit crunch. During all this time banks have spent more money on systems and software and hired more and more quants and number crunchers. Banking is really, really simple. Banks lend money and if you are a worse credit risk they charge you more than if you are a good credit. That is what they do. A bond is just a certificate saying that you have lent money to a government and company and will be repaid and receive a fixed interest rate. All financial transactions are based on the concept of credit risk. It may be hard to explain an asset backed collateralised debt obligation but the core concept is that a pool of assets will pay revenue and ok, some may default but the pool is large enough that the return from those that do not default will more than offset those that do.

I remain very bearish about the global economy and will be looking to sell shares and go long, (buy), gold at appropriate entry points.

Wednesday 2 December 2009

Too Much, Too Soon

Wednesdays P&L: GBP 1,630.26

Wednesdays Booze: So far, 2 pints of Kronenbourg 1664 and 2 shots of Smirnoff Vodka.

It is 8.55 am here in sunny London and I am already up over sixteen hundred quid thanks to the gold price. Perhaps I should call it a day now. After all that is a decent wage. Tax free of course as I have reduced my cash futures trading business due to high margin calls and am concentrating on spread betting right now. If I did call it a day, what would I do? There is only so much porn you can look at. There is always the siren call of the pub but they don't open for hours yet and even I have enough dignity not to be standing outside the door when the staff arrive. No the name of the game is risk and if you want to play, you have to embrace it - I may regret this.

Tuesday 1 December 2009

Year Zero

Tuesdays P&L: GBP - 1,030.00

Tuesdays Booze: 1 liter of Stolychnaya Vodka, 6 pint cans of Stella Artois.

So I am back on the grog, my doctor will be displeased. Who cares, I am not in the business of pleasing people. Anyway this weather is playing havoc with my joints, whats wrong with a bit of self-medication?

Today I started bleeding out of my eye sockets. It isn't too serious. A year or so ago I tripped over in Barcelona and fractured by face. Just bad luck as I landed on a kerb and broke my skull from between my eyes to the top of my jaw. Of course being me I didn't go to the hospital. Anyway due to an ongoing bone problem none of my bones ever set properly. Hence the blood coming out my eyes - scared the fuck out of the neighbours kids though.

Another ex girlfriend got in touch with me today. I am not sure why all my ex girlfriends assume I am some back up boyfriend they can get in touch with after their relationships with whoever they left me for fail. This one is the maddest of them all, (which in the rogues gallery of my girlfriends is saying something). This one was also the most fun of all of them and was dynamite in bed, even for a jaded old fool like myself. What is it about crazy women that they are good in bed?

As far as the working day goes I am running a big loss on a short DAX position, I shan't close it out as I still think the market is overvalued. It is partially offset by a long gold trade. The current correlation between the dollar and gold price is beneficial for US equities and the other indexes follow the S&P500 like I follow a barmaid. If this starts to beakdown I will look to short equities rather than close out my gold trade. There are no currencies backed by gold but I spent long enough in Asia, Africa and South America to see that can happen to paper money. The Year Zero reference relates to Cambodia. I first visited there in 1987. I remember buying a stack of worthless Riels from the old regime for about 10 Thai baht. A friend of mine collected banknotes so I got them for him. In Indonesia in 97 the currency fell so quickly that people just didn't know what to price things at. Its happened several times in Brazil. People always say, oh there will never be hyperinflation again but it happens in smaller countries more often than you would know. Thats why most Asians like to keep some real gold. You can buy 22 or 24k gold blocks in lots of places in Bangkok or Jakarta

Hard Decisions

Mondays P&L: GBP900.00

Mondays Booze: 4 liters of Aspalls cider, 2 large glasses of red wine, half a liter of Smirnoff Black vodka.


So I succumbed to spirits again. I am not especially proud of it. Ok it was only half a liter but drinking Vodka is a bit of an issue for me. If it had been whiskey or tequila it wouldn't have been so bad. Vodka is my personal addiction and rather like crack to me.

I am not sure why I drank it, I didn't lose any money in the markets and in fact pulled down nine hundred pounds on a short position on the Dow 30. The days trading was relatively meaningless, it always is at this time of year and I had expected the situation in Dubai to have more of an impact. It isn't so much that Dubai is bankrupt that is worrying. Dubai has known for years that it has little oil or gas left, which is why it tried to market itself as a tourist and business destination. I hate the place, mainly because I can't stand muslim nightlife. I wouldn't go there at all if it wasn't for the fact that my second favorite, (and the one I use most for cost reasons), airline forces you to stop there on the way to Asia. What is worrying about Dubai is that along with the BRIC countries, Dubai was one of the places that the US and UK was counting on to take up the slack in the global economy. I have never really fallen for this whole emerging market scam. My first ever job was restructuring South American loans into Brady bonds. We were always being told that Brazil was the market of the future even then but nobody said who was going to kick the lazy bastards out of bed. India and China may have huge emerging middle classes but it just doesn't add up. I was in a hotel off the coast of Jakarta talking to this American guy who ran the China division of a large automobile company and he said he doubted any western company had ever made any money in China. If you think about it The boom in China is providing cheap products to the West. If we stop buying their goods or they start charging too much for them then where do they go from there. Average salaries are cheaper in Indonesia and Cambodia but those countries lack the infrastructure to export the way China does. In my opinion China befitted most because of the return of Hong Kong. All of a sudden you had this massive manufacturing capacity but unlike any other third world country it had a first world banking system. You could make a same day payment to a bank in Hong Kong, try doing that in Jakarta or Bangkok in ninety six.

Anyway as far as I can see some of the big money is aware that all is not well, just check out the Gold price 1,195 per ounce!

in other personal news it seems the girlfriend has decided not to slope of with her billionaire friend. She says she loves me, which I find hard to believe. Just saying if I had someone that rich interested in me, I could probably close my eyes and think of Scotland. Gosh, it is hard to write about personal matters and try and keep some kind of anonymity for all people concerned. I am beginning to see the problems juliette has on her excellent blog," the new adventures of juliette". The girlfriend wants to get married and have a child but I am reluctant to commit to this. As far as the quacks are concerned, I am already on borrowed time and my girlfriend had a very aggressive cancer some years back which she beat but she still often goes into hospital for a week or so due to immune problems. So whats the point in having children if neither of us are going to be sure to be around?

Thursday 26 November 2009

It's no good

Today's P&L: GBP-800.00

Today's Booze: 2 bottles of cheap red wine, 2 liters of dry cider, (its still only lunch-time).

Thanksgiving is a hell of a day to trade. London maybe the undisputed center of the financial world, but most of the traders look to New York for their lead and if the Americans don't work - then neither do we. The markets are so thin that all you are likely to do is lose money. I shouldn't trade on a day like this, but what can I do. I am so underwater that I have to take every chance I can. Anyway, its not like I have anything better to do.

I should be with my girlfriend but I think that has little time left to run. She can't stand my emotional distance and is being pursued by some Scandinavian who has recently been elevated to billionaire status. I should feel some kind of sadness that I think we are about to split up, but the truth is I can't really bring myself to feel anything. In fact, I am almost relieved. It is just too much responsibility to be held liable for someone else s happiness. Is that what relationships are all about, making other people happy? I can't do that, I seriously doubt I have ever made anyone happy in my life.

Wednesday 25 November 2009

Other People

Wednesdays P&L: GBP680.00.

Wednesdays booze: 6 liters of Stella Artois, 3 large brandies.

Today I am thinking about people I have known and the past. I try and avoid thinking of my past as a rule but I have recently been in touch with a few people, (by e-mail), who knew me some time ago.

One of them was a girl who lived in the same small town I did when I was a child. She is a few years older than me and even back then was a sexy girl - and definitely knew it. Her life has changed so much she went far away. We lived in a town that if you had any real ambition you moved away. She has had some bad luck in her life and recently had some bad news. I felt so bad for her, even though it is over 27 years since the last time I saw her, I remember her fondly. I hope she gets the happiness she deserves.

The other friend was more a guitarist who used to play in a band with me at school. He was a very cool guy, but like everything it has its season and he went to live in another part of the country shortly after I went to live in Asia. He has also had some misfortune but in my opinion he wasn't cut out for the conventional life he finds himself in.

All this time and after so much has happened to hear from people like this is kind of a jolt for me. My style is to move on and ignore the past. It makes me wonder how many people walk around carrying their past in their heads and hearts. It also makes me realise how dispassionate I am. Most people who meet me think I am the kind of guy who attacks life and tries to do the most I can, but upon reflection, it is quite clear that I cut myself off from almost everything.

Friday 23 October 2009

Storm Warning

Fridays P&L: GBP 485.00

Fridays Booze: 3 liters of some organic cider, 1 liter of red wine, 1 large Vodka on ice.

Another relatively pointless day. Spot cable, (GBP/USD), took a massive hit of 400 points because the recession in the UK isn't over as Germany, France and The US are making signs of recovering. In my opinion we are just being more honest. I took a beating on the foreign exchange futures I had but made a profit on a short position on the DAX.

Last night in the UK we had the head of the British National Party on the tv. He is, as you would expect, a loathsome character and he is supposed to be the friendly public face of his party but I have to admit he made some good points. I should hate this guy and all he stands for, after all I am nothing if not an internationalist and aside from my love of London as one of the truly great cities in the world I have no overwhelming attachment to the UK. I am aware, though of how some British people are feeling regarding the overwhelming immigration into the UK and worse, the insistence of certain groups to have their traditions and beliefs respected above those of their new country. While it is meaningless to me, I have lived in muslim countries, (only relatively secular ones), and have seen the friction that can be caused. I wouldn't really want that in Britain. I wonder why the UK is the target for so many immigrants, I mean in theory we are all part of Europe and the living standards in Germany and Sweden are much better than in the UK, so why the surge to Britain. I can only assume the benefits system here really is more advantageous. I wouldn't really know as I have never claimed benefits in my life but I have taken advantage of the health system. My concern is that the likes of the BNP cater to the dumbed down, me now generation.

Anyway, another weekend looms ahead, the recent cold weather pays havoc with my ankles and knees, I mean I am still mobile, but after all those fractures there is bound to be some residual pain - the most irritating is in my right knee which feels like a burning spike deep inside the knee cap. There is no way to relieve this, you can't scratch it like an itch you just have to learn to ignore it. That was a lot easier when I was drinking 2 or more liters of vodka a day. Anyway enough of feeling sorry for myself. Lets just hope next week is better.

Thursday 22 October 2009

Thursdays P&L: GBP390.00

Thursdays Booze: Last bottle of Chateau de Beaucastel 2000, 8 cans of Kronenbourg 1664

What to think about today? The markets still defy reason. After taking a fairly severe beating on some index shorts I had, I am taking money where I can find it, just to try and rebuild some capital. I am sure in the long-run I will be right, but trading isn't about being right - its a business and timing is everything.

Here in the UK we have one of our crazy right wing nationalists appearing on the tv tonight. I will be interested in hearing what the old crackpot has to say. My girlfriend is a foreigner who just happens to have come from a fairly wealthy background. Having said that she has never shied away from an honest days work in her life and has donated far more to charity, (in this country and abroad), than I ever have. I would be prepared to bet loads of money that she has donated more in charity and time to the underprivileged in this country than Nick Griffin ever has. So is she welcome because she contributes? if that is the case then the man is more hypocritical than I thought. I do believe that the BNP in this country is a bit of a sideshow, something to take our minds of the true dismal situation and corruption. You just have to look at the protesters on Sky tv. Some of them clearly don't know if they are protesting against racism or climate change or globalization. One things for sure they all have that smug self-satisfied look of people who have never endured hardship but are willing to cry on someones shoulder about other peoples situation. I only have to see the red dyed hair and nasal piercing to tune out before someone tells me about the terrible situation in Nepal or in Burma.

Friday 16 October 2009

Fridays P&L: GBP 120!!!!

Fridays Booze: 2 bottles of cheap french red wine, 1 litre of dry cider


Still on Doctors orders as far as the grog goes, I am craving spirits so much. Am I an addict? I don't doubt it, the quack thinks I am lucky to be alive, but you know what? All that booze I drunk, all the risks I took they never impaired my work - My birthday in January, never thought I would be so old.

The girlfriend is harassing me. Wants to get married, I can't help wondering who the fuck would want to marry someone like me. Its not that I think I am a bad person, on the contrary - I think I am an excellent fellow. Would I want my daughter, (if I had one), to marry someone like myself? Not in a million years. There are plenty of decent blokes out there, guys who are falling over themselves to find suitable girls. I have always really regarded any women I went out with as rather lucky to have met me.

The markets are dead right now, small chance of me making my fortune back if this continues. Maybe I am just not seeing the chances, it wouldn't surprise me I have had rather a lot on my mind lately.

Saturday 10 October 2009

Working Men

Fridays P&L: GBP 1,200

Fridays Booze: 8 pints of Stella Artois, 1 bottle Tinto Pesquera 1994

What a strange day. The markets continue to believe that everything is good. A year on in and the crisis is over. Yet something doesn't sit right. Was this financial crisis so temporary? Could it really be solved by just injecting unlimited capital into the banking system? The politicians in the UK have been on holiday and seem focused on dealing with the troublesome issue of their expenses when they return. The part conferences have shown that deep down and despite whatever promises they make, non of the politicians have any idea how to address the gaping whole in our national finances. The American Politicians are basking in the reflected glory of Obama and his Nobel prize, (for which he was nominated after just 11 days in office).

Its the Americans I feel sorriest for. They seem unable to accept their new role in the world and hope things will return to normal, but how can it? The securities houses of Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Merril Lynch, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are all gone. OK, they still exist apart from Lehmans, but they have all been forced into unfavorable mergers or converted into FDIC regulated bank holding companies. These companies that survived the depression, both world wars and all the recessions of the last century just collapsed under the weight of their own hubris and greed. The same thing happened here in the UK. RBS, the biggest British bank with total assets exceeding the GDP of the country floundered, so did HBOS, the biggest mortgage lender in the country. These banks were rescued at an unknown cost, (the full cost to the country will never be revealed), because what was the alternative? The banks not opening the next day, people unable to withdraw cash from ATM's salaries not being paid into bank accounts, businesses unable to pay suppliers. In effect the complete meltdown of the modern society we have grown to depend on. We were literally hours away from this happening. and yet when I walk around London most people seem unaware.

It isn't the case with a lot of the trading community, I spoke to a few ex-colleagues who have come close to committing suicide. Its easy to distract the general public with stories of huge bonuses and yes, many investment bankers and traders earned huge salaries, but these were earned, contracts were established and generally bonuses were similar in percentage terms to top salespeople in other fields. Just the revenues were exceptional. Anyway, the bubble has been reinflated, but the future consequences are unknown. One thing is for sure, things will never be the same again.

Thursday 13 August 2009

Wednesdays P&L: GBP923

Wednesdays booze: 3 bottles of Australian white wine, 4 cans of Carlsberg Premium, 3 large Vodka & Tonic

Read the market completely wrong yesterday but managed to salvage something. I anticipated another sell-off yesterday. I don't pay huge amounts of attention to charts, although I should as most market participants are just sheep these days, blindly following the buy and sell indicators generated by whatever charting method they use. I am more interested in interpreting what I see happening around me and I still see hard times coming. I am not surprised there has been an uptick in the markets, the sheer amount of liquidity that has been pumped in has to have some effect. What surprises me is that people are not saying, "well hang on a minute...isn't this what got us into this mess in the first place"? I am not much of a student having left school at 16 but I always was interested in history and the belief that if you don't understand the past you cannot learn from it. The finance industry seems hopelessly unable to learn from its mistakes. After wasn't it only 2 months ago people were getting upset by the rewards bankers earned and just this week Citibank has had to defend its decision to pay an oil trader USD100million and our own RBS, (surely the UK version of Citi), has announced it is hiring a bond trader from Merrill Lynch for a minimum of GBP7million. There is no fuss about this, because of course the public has moved on to fresh outrages. All the time the US and the UK are printing money hoping that things will return to normal. The US knows that the enormous debt it has is not really its problem, it is China, Japan and the rest of the world. Of course America should lose its AAA rating. Of course the dollar should tank but if that happened the losers would be the holders of the debt. The UK is no better its own debt situation is nothing more than a ponzi scheme. It can only end badly.

What do I know if these recent events had happened when I was still working for a bank, I would have genuinely thought the global economy was coming to an end but instead things go on as normal. People go to ATM's and withdraw their cash - it doesn't matter to them if the Nat West is owned by RBS or the government. The banks continue to send out letters to people behind on their mortgages or credit cards admonishing them for imprudent borrowing and poor financial management with no hint of irony. When this first happened in the UK. Northern Rock should have been shuttered and the people who routinely sign repossession letters or say "computer says no" should have been made redundant. OK it wasn't their fault that the company collapsed they are just tiny cogs in a far bigger machine but the effects of a few thousand losing their jobs would have been significant and also given us a truer picture of the real situation at the banks. The depositors at the bank should have received the protection they were entitled to if they had more than that amount then that is their fault. It is not as though there were a shortage of alternatives to deposit their money. Instead we have the bizarre situation where the banks are being supported by the very people they have no hesitation in sending the bailiffs for. All the time the excess liquidity is building up in the system and when the banks finally find themselves confident to lend again, they may find there are a lot less people with jobs to be able to afford loans from them.

Saturday 11 July 2009

Fridays P&L: GBP 2,000

Fridays booze: 2 bottles of Tinto Pesquera 1994, half a litre of co-ops finest triple distilled vodka, 2 bottles of Stella Artois.

Back down to 2 grand for the day - don't blame me, blame these cocksucker traders that have sucked the volatility out of the market. Maybe they are scared, don't see why the government seems to have given them carte blanche to do whatever they want.

Whats on my mind today? Well apart from the fact that my ex girlfriend who's family is literally worth hundreds of millions of dollars has decided to persecute me for a small loan of USD 75,000 she made to me, all because I have a new girlfriend. I guess what I am wondering about is the exit of GM from bankruptcy protection. The market seems divided over this. The pro-Obama types say that the new lean and mean GM will compete globally. The Republicans say its amazing what you can do with involuntary contributions from tax-payers. I am inclined to agree with the last opinion. GM is a shambles and I wouldn't buy one of their pony automobiles for all the tea in China, no matter how many rap stars drive around in their Escalades. As far as I can see the only people who actually buy GM cars are retirees in Florida and didn't they just shaft all of those when they were under chapter 11. Look for another wave of SCDO defaults as a result of the GM bankruptcy. While we are on the subject Bradford & Bingly triggered credit default swaps by not paying an expecter interest amount. Seeing as they are owned by Her Majesty's Government, well the shit part is, they rather generously gave away any workable assets to Santander for two vouchers for a Grande Latte at Starbucks, doesn't that mean that the UK is technically in default? Surely those wise level-headed people at Moody's and S&P have noticed this.

Thursday 9 July 2009

Todays P&L: GBP 2,750

Todays booze: 3 litres of dry cider, 3 large Vodkas, 1 bottle of Vega Sicillia Unico 1989

Well so much for staying sober, at least I am not back on the Absinthe...yet. I am making a living salary again at last, although you can't really call it that untill you average over £5k per day for at least several months. Why the turn around in my trading fortunes? I am not sure, I assume it has something to do with the fact that I no longer have any faith in capitalism anymore. The US that bastion of capitalism has proven itself to be no better than the previous holder of that title, the UK.

America is allowing its manufacturing heartland to die while it allows the banking sector to openly mock the gowernment by accepting TARPS money and then when the conditions seem a little uncomfortable duck out of it. Meanwhile the Obama sideshow is still wandering around the globe accepting the plaudits for being the first black President. Well done mate, but sooner or later you are going to actually address the problems affecting your nation, which seems in terminal decline.

I should be happy, I have a girlfriend in my life as well as a few ex-girlfriends trying to get back in contact with me. However happiness is not a state I am naturally comfortable with. I am still unwell but I have given up worrying about that. My GP who also happens to be an MP has made it quite clear that his expenses are far more of a concern to him than the health of his patients. If you are a drunk, by the way, don't ever admit it to the quacks. As far as they are concerned, once you admit to being on the grog every illness that you may have is explained by your intake of booze!

Monday 8 June 2009

Fraud

Todays P&L: GBP800
Todays booze: 4 litres of dry cider

I feel like a fraud. I started writing this to document my inevitable self-destruction and my general ambivalance to the world and what has happened? I have survived an emergency hospitalisation and an ex-girlfriend has got back in touch with me after fifteen years. Why anyone would want to meet me again I am not sure, one things for sure I am not the man I used to be - but then who of us is? So I guess my rocketride to death, without actually commiting suicide, (its that whole Catholic thing), has been put on hold for a while. I might even get serious about trading again, rather than just making enough money to get battered. All depressing stuff - but look on the bright side, she might realise her mistake and ditch me. Giving me a real reason to wallow in self-pity.

On a brighter note, I caught a television program called Elvis - Return to Tuplo, the other day. Man I forgot how great he was! The boy could sing and he could move. Forget about all that talent show crap that is in the charts today and check out vintage Elvis in 1956. No Echoplex Harmonisers or Lexicon Reverbs then. Just the voice and the microphone. I know it is popular to slate Elvis now and say he stole black music but John Lennon said it best, "before Elvis, there was nothing".