Todays P&L: Nothing at all
Todays booze: 3 large Vodka & Tonics - its only lunch time, I am just getting started!
So that was Christmas. Bah, Humbug! I didn't find myself all overwhelmed with love and peace for my fellow man and I have realised that being unable to trade for even 48 hours is causing me serious problems. Another example of my addicitve personality I guess. The UK government seems to be wholeheartedly supportive of the gambling industry, although I suspect they will turn on it just as they did with cigarettes and booze after exploiting it for all the tax revenue they can.
I am wondering why customers here in the UK even bother repaying their debts to the banks, which are largely nationalised now anyway. Even the banks that haven't taken Government aid are exchanging their worthless securitised paper for gilts! The banks seem to be under the impression that it was just bad luck and circumstances beyond their control that caused these huge losses. Funny that when you use that argument for being unable to repay your credit card debt the banks look the other way and slap a CCJ on you quicker than you can say Ebeneezer Scrooge. I remember those halcyon days when bankers attracted press because of their lifestyles. Anyone remember the 3 Barclays Capital Markets Risk analyts that ran up a £40,000 plus lunch bill at Petrus? The unkind press attention ensured that the lost their jobs bit of a shame really, Barclays really could use some decent risk managers now!
The financial climate has changed so much for anyone who remembers how it used to be, If I had told you two years ago that the 5 Wall Street houses of the holy would no longer exist and that AIG and Fannie May and Freddie Mac would be nationalised I would have been laughed out of the room. And the US, once a capitalist nation apparently, would be prepared to bail-out its worthless industrial titans whatever the cost. It is unthinkable and the scam only works as long as nobody calls on the US to show its cards. We are in a situation where investors are so scared that they actually are paying to lend money to the US. Forget the effects of inflation, 2 year notes have a 98 handle on their yield. The US is effecively printing money without any fiscal responsibility - this can only end badly.
Friday 26 December 2008
Thursday 25 December 2008
Todays P&L: Hey, it's Christmas
Todays Booze: 1 litre Russian Standard Vodke, 8 pints of dry Cider, 3 cans of Stella Artois
Ok, so the doctors orders didn't last, but you know I feel better than I have in ages being back on the hard stuff. The quacks have said I am dying anyway, so what difference does it make? I have been to Church and recieved absolution, now I just have to make myself worthy.
As far as the markets go, well over December I have had a wild, wild ride. the most I earned was £5,000 in one day and the most I lost £3,000 so I guess I am up. Despite my loving this crazy volatility I am a little disturbed. I genuinely believe that we are heading into a depression that will easily rival that great depression. Even if the clowns in charge mange to band aid things up for a while, the opening of the taps of liquidity have unleashed a dragon of inflation that will flex its coils around us. Bernanke, Paulson, Darling and the likes are only interested in buying time so the problems are those of the next guy in the job. I pity poor Obama because I genuinely believe he will be held responsible for a collapse in the US economy that has nothing to do with him.
The myth of globalisation is becoming apparant all to quickly as the USA and Europe sink into recession, the idea that the BRIC, (Brazil, Russia, India, China), countries will take up the baton is being exposed as a cruel joke. All of these countries are unstable, Russia is of course the joker in the pack. It defaulted in 1998 and I remember a Credit Suisse banker saying to me "we will never trade with these clowns again" but the lure of easy money was too much. Now a country that had the 3rd largest foreign currency reserves has expended nearly 40% in a couple of months trying to defend the Ruble...pathetic. And as for the middle-east forget it. Those fools have squandered their resources quicker than a drunk duke on his birthday. Saudi and Dubai have been chasing which country had the highest skyscraper, the way that in previous oil-booms they chased Park Lane hookers and US or European jet fighters.
So what next? My belief is get ready for the hard times, I don't know how many of us are prepared for in-between years economics. Who am I to speak, I can't even change a plug and when I lived in Indonesia and Thailand I had maids and workers to do everything for me. I did see this coming though, and while everyone is hoping for better times next year, I can only see that the fiscal irresponsibility has placed any bright light further away.
Todays Booze: 1 litre Russian Standard Vodke, 8 pints of dry Cider, 3 cans of Stella Artois
Ok, so the doctors orders didn't last, but you know I feel better than I have in ages being back on the hard stuff. The quacks have said I am dying anyway, so what difference does it make? I have been to Church and recieved absolution, now I just have to make myself worthy.
As far as the markets go, well over December I have had a wild, wild ride. the most I earned was £5,000 in one day and the most I lost £3,000 so I guess I am up. Despite my loving this crazy volatility I am a little disturbed. I genuinely believe that we are heading into a depression that will easily rival that great depression. Even if the clowns in charge mange to band aid things up for a while, the opening of the taps of liquidity have unleashed a dragon of inflation that will flex its coils around us. Bernanke, Paulson, Darling and the likes are only interested in buying time so the problems are those of the next guy in the job. I pity poor Obama because I genuinely believe he will be held responsible for a collapse in the US economy that has nothing to do with him.
The myth of globalisation is becoming apparant all to quickly as the USA and Europe sink into recession, the idea that the BRIC, (Brazil, Russia, India, China), countries will take up the baton is being exposed as a cruel joke. All of these countries are unstable, Russia is of course the joker in the pack. It defaulted in 1998 and I remember a Credit Suisse banker saying to me "we will never trade with these clowns again" but the lure of easy money was too much. Now a country that had the 3rd largest foreign currency reserves has expended nearly 40% in a couple of months trying to defend the Ruble...pathetic. And as for the middle-east forget it. Those fools have squandered their resources quicker than a drunk duke on his birthday. Saudi and Dubai have been chasing which country had the highest skyscraper, the way that in previous oil-booms they chased Park Lane hookers and US or European jet fighters.
So what next? My belief is get ready for the hard times, I don't know how many of us are prepared for in-between years economics. Who am I to speak, I can't even change a plug and when I lived in Indonesia and Thailand I had maids and workers to do everything for me. I did see this coming though, and while everyone is hoping for better times next year, I can only see that the fiscal irresponsibility has placed any bright light further away.
Monday 13 October 2008
Still here
Todays P&L: GBP -380
Todays Booze: 4 tins of Stella Artois
Quite a light drinking day for me, but then I am under doctors orders! Since the last time I blogged I have been hospitalised, the quacks think it is my excessive drinking - but that can't be, drink is my best friend - it has never let me down before.
I can't get a grip around these markets - it seems the end is nigh, I mean who would have thought that the UK would have to partly nationalise 3 of the largest banks? And what about our American cousins, America the home of capitalism, well it might seem that the nationalisation of Fannie May and Freddie Mac and AIG, (nationalisation in all but name), smacked of socialism. Look deeper however and you will see the truth of capitalism. Paulson and the increasingly clownish Bernanke are bailing out the rich overpaid bankers and excessively wealthy and springing the bill on the doltish middle-class. The people who are losing the most in this financial crisis are the soft underbelly of American society. It is the same in the UK but it just staggers me how easy it is to bamboozle supposedly educated people into beliving this is the best way this could be handled.
Todays Booze: 4 tins of Stella Artois
Quite a light drinking day for me, but then I am under doctors orders! Since the last time I blogged I have been hospitalised, the quacks think it is my excessive drinking - but that can't be, drink is my best friend - it has never let me down before.
I can't get a grip around these markets - it seems the end is nigh, I mean who would have thought that the UK would have to partly nationalise 3 of the largest banks? And what about our American cousins, America the home of capitalism, well it might seem that the nationalisation of Fannie May and Freddie Mac and AIG, (nationalisation in all but name), smacked of socialism. Look deeper however and you will see the truth of capitalism. Paulson and the increasingly clownish Bernanke are bailing out the rich overpaid bankers and excessively wealthy and springing the bill on the doltish middle-class. The people who are losing the most in this financial crisis are the soft underbelly of American society. It is the same in the UK but it just staggers me how easy it is to bamboozle supposedly educated people into beliving this is the best way this could be handled.
Wednesday 16 January 2008
I Was Born Under A Wandering Star
Yesterdays P&L: GBP287.00
Yesterdays Booze: 70cl Imperial Standard Russian Vodka, 3 x Large Gordons Gin & Tonic, 6 pack of Heineken Lager.
Lee Marvin on the juke box - Wandering Star! I often wonder about all the travelling I have done, it seems so natural to me. Even though my parents tried to give some stability to our lives, my family feels like it is fluid, in constant motion. So it was natural for me to be restless.
I have travelled a lot, Africa, South & Central America, North America, Europe (of course) and mostly in Asia. I love travelling and I still get a thrill when I am on a plane or ship heading somewhere. I realised fairly quickly that I am not the back-packer type, well actually I am to a certain extent, a friend in Indonesia once said to me you are the first 5 star backpacker I ever met. You see, I like to go off the beaten track, but I do like to travel in style. I enjoy staying in top hotels and flying first or business class. But then I also enjoy going to the dodgier parts of town and hanging out in the less salubrious places.
When I was based in Bangkok , I travelled to most of the regional hot-spots, (Ho Chi-Minh, KL, Singapore, Penang, Bali, Jakarta, Hong Kong), with regularity but I also liked to visit places such as Yangon, Manilla, Pnohm Pen, Guangdong, Pusan and lots of Indonesian towns that I am well acquainted with. The problem with going to so many places is that you forget how special they are. I have never been much of a tourist in terms of buying local bric-a-brac and taking photographs but I often wonder if perhaps I should have been. Many of the places I have been and the things I have seen will never exist in that form again. The world is changing and it is certain to change the places we visit. When I went to Shanghai, Pudong was little more than a swamp, but you only have to look at a photograph of it now to see the changes 12 years have made. I remember climbing up the ancient Hindu temple of Borabadur in Java to see the sun rise, all the Japanese tourists gasped and took pictures I had a nice cold drink, (booze of course). I remember being alone in the officers bar of the ship my father worked on leaning over the deck and stairwell outside Apapa quay in Lagos, Nigeria. The city behind me and the odd purple phosphorus glow of the water surrounding the ship - Heartbeat City by The Cars playing to me.
I often think that I am so unlucky to not see what will happen in the future, you know - will it be like what the movies tell us, but at the same time I feel sorry for the people who will never see the world as it was before this globalisation. Never be able to see countries like Thailand before it became a charter destination.
Yesterdays Booze: 70cl Imperial Standard Russian Vodka, 3 x Large Gordons Gin & Tonic, 6 pack of Heineken Lager.
Lee Marvin on the juke box - Wandering Star! I often wonder about all the travelling I have done, it seems so natural to me. Even though my parents tried to give some stability to our lives, my family feels like it is fluid, in constant motion. So it was natural for me to be restless.
I have travelled a lot, Africa, South & Central America, North America, Europe (of course) and mostly in Asia. I love travelling and I still get a thrill when I am on a plane or ship heading somewhere. I realised fairly quickly that I am not the back-packer type, well actually I am to a certain extent, a friend in Indonesia once said to me you are the first 5 star backpacker I ever met. You see, I like to go off the beaten track, but I do like to travel in style. I enjoy staying in top hotels and flying first or business class. But then I also enjoy going to the dodgier parts of town and hanging out in the less salubrious places.
When I was based in Bangkok , I travelled to most of the regional hot-spots, (Ho Chi-Minh, KL, Singapore, Penang, Bali, Jakarta, Hong Kong), with regularity but I also liked to visit places such as Yangon, Manilla, Pnohm Pen, Guangdong, Pusan and lots of Indonesian towns that I am well acquainted with. The problem with going to so many places is that you forget how special they are. I have never been much of a tourist in terms of buying local bric-a-brac and taking photographs but I often wonder if perhaps I should have been. Many of the places I have been and the things I have seen will never exist in that form again. The world is changing and it is certain to change the places we visit. When I went to Shanghai, Pudong was little more than a swamp, but you only have to look at a photograph of it now to see the changes 12 years have made. I remember climbing up the ancient Hindu temple of Borabadur in Java to see the sun rise, all the Japanese tourists gasped and took pictures I had a nice cold drink, (booze of course). I remember being alone in the officers bar of the ship my father worked on leaning over the deck and stairwell outside Apapa quay in Lagos, Nigeria. The city behind me and the odd purple phosphorus glow of the water surrounding the ship - Heartbeat City by The Cars playing to me.
I often think that I am so unlucky to not see what will happen in the future, you know - will it be like what the movies tell us, but at the same time I feel sorry for the people who will never see the world as it was before this globalisation. Never be able to see countries like Thailand before it became a charter destination.
Sunday 13 January 2008
Fridays P&L: GBP198.00
Yesterdays Booze: 70cl Imperial Russian Vodka, 2 x Bombay Sapphire Martinis, 3 x 500ml Stella Artois, 70 cl cheap French white wine.
So another day, another dollar, the bad feelings in the markets continue. The rumours on Friday where that Merrill Lynch is going to post as much as USD15bn in credit related write-downs and that Citibank is going to post a similar number, despit both institutions claiming they had drawn a line under their losses in the 3rd quarter. These numbers are staggering and unsurprisingly, both institutions are supposedly trawling Asia and the Middle-East for additional capital investment. No doubt the market will respond positively to foreign investment in these companies, but surely America should be questioning itself. For years America has been shifting itself from an industrial economy to a service orientated economy. The financial sector is a key part of the information based economy that the US sees as key to maintaining its pre-eminent position in the world. And yet key components such as Citi and Merrill are being sold piecemeal to foreign governments. It may be too early to count America out, but it is difficult to see where the future of the US is if a worst-case style depression occurs. The phenomenal wealth generated post WW2 may dissapate, just as the baby-boomers need it most. If the government decides to lower rates to kick-start the economy and US treasuries lose their attractiveness to investors then the US will be exposed to inflation and currency devaluation. I have been in a few countries that experienced hyper-inflation and one thing is clear is that the most affected are the middle-class. The USA is ill-placed to withstand a genuine attack of inflation and while I am not quite as doom and gloom laden as legendary investor Julian Roberts, I can see this as being one of the most trying times for the most important economy in the world.
Yesterdays Booze: 70cl Imperial Russian Vodka, 2 x Bombay Sapphire Martinis, 3 x 500ml Stella Artois, 70 cl cheap French white wine.
So another day, another dollar, the bad feelings in the markets continue. The rumours on Friday where that Merrill Lynch is going to post as much as USD15bn in credit related write-downs and that Citibank is going to post a similar number, despit both institutions claiming they had drawn a line under their losses in the 3rd quarter. These numbers are staggering and unsurprisingly, both institutions are supposedly trawling Asia and the Middle-East for additional capital investment. No doubt the market will respond positively to foreign investment in these companies, but surely America should be questioning itself. For years America has been shifting itself from an industrial economy to a service orientated economy. The financial sector is a key part of the information based economy that the US sees as key to maintaining its pre-eminent position in the world. And yet key components such as Citi and Merrill are being sold piecemeal to foreign governments. It may be too early to count America out, but it is difficult to see where the future of the US is if a worst-case style depression occurs. The phenomenal wealth generated post WW2 may dissapate, just as the baby-boomers need it most. If the government decides to lower rates to kick-start the economy and US treasuries lose their attractiveness to investors then the US will be exposed to inflation and currency devaluation. I have been in a few countries that experienced hyper-inflation and one thing is clear is that the most affected are the middle-class. The USA is ill-placed to withstand a genuine attack of inflation and while I am not quite as doom and gloom laden as legendary investor Julian Roberts, I can see this as being one of the most trying times for the most important economy in the world.
Tuesday 8 January 2008
Yesterdys P&L: GBP228.00
Yestedays Booze: 500ml Danzka Blackcurrent Vodka, 2 x 500ml Stella Artois, 3 x Gordons Gin & light tonic, (New Years resolution), 1ltr Dry Irish Cider.
So back to work, the markets are returning to some level of reasonable activity, (it doesn't last long - soon the traders in Wall Street will be preparing for their Easter break). Maybe lower wages are the answer, might make the bastards work harder! I have heard from a friend that the lay-offs have started at Merril Lynch, (the thundering herd as they used to be known), apparantly a lot of analysts, traders and salespeople are dismayed to find out the standard package is 3 months salary and a maximum bonus of USD25,000. My heart bleeds, it should be remembered that these clowns lost billions of dollars, (USD8billion in last years 3rd quarter), and forced one of the oldest securities companies in America to seek capital from Singapore. The CEO of Bear Stearns is also likely to take the fall today, no doubt with a suitably large pay-off. When Stan O'Neal got the Push from Merrill his package was reported as between USD90-162 million, not bad for letting the company take a dive on your watch.
I still predict hard times ahead and not just because I am Mr.Gloom, it just strikes me that there has been far too much excess in recent years and whenever this happens there needs to be a cleansing period. Of course the severity of this readjustment varies, in my opinion government intervention frequently makes things worse and it seems to me that the US administration is trying too hard to bail out all those rich financiers. The repurcussions of a serious decline in the finance industry will be significant, despite what other people think about bankers, there are a lot of people indirectly employed as a result. All wages are higher on Wall Street and in the City than in other jobs this includes secretaries, clerical workers and receptionists. It explains why there are so many shops selling coffee for GBP3.50 and sandwiches for GBP4.00. As for the higher earners and those that are on corporate accounts, these guys are the reason that you can get special fried rice for USD100.00 in Manhattan, (ok it has lobster instead of shrimp and truffles shavings- but even so) and sandwiches for GBP90.00 in London. I imagine a lot of the strippers that work in London and New York and Chicago are going to find generous tippers harder to come by as well.
My younger brother phoned me today to ask how my birthday was, he has taken to calling me Hilt after the cooler king in the movie The Great Escape. He says that he oen't know anyone who self-imposes so much solitary confinement time as me. He might be on to something I have been sitting in front of all these screens so long I am beginning to feel like somebody who was institutionalised. Still if you are going to be compared with someone it doesn't get much better than Steve McQueen!
Yestedays Booze: 500ml Danzka Blackcurrent Vodka, 2 x 500ml Stella Artois, 3 x Gordons Gin & light tonic, (New Years resolution), 1ltr Dry Irish Cider.
So back to work, the markets are returning to some level of reasonable activity, (it doesn't last long - soon the traders in Wall Street will be preparing for their Easter break). Maybe lower wages are the answer, might make the bastards work harder! I have heard from a friend that the lay-offs have started at Merril Lynch, (the thundering herd as they used to be known), apparantly a lot of analysts, traders and salespeople are dismayed to find out the standard package is 3 months salary and a maximum bonus of USD25,000. My heart bleeds, it should be remembered that these clowns lost billions of dollars, (USD8billion in last years 3rd quarter), and forced one of the oldest securities companies in America to seek capital from Singapore. The CEO of Bear Stearns is also likely to take the fall today, no doubt with a suitably large pay-off. When Stan O'Neal got the Push from Merrill his package was reported as between USD90-162 million, not bad for letting the company take a dive on your watch.
I still predict hard times ahead and not just because I am Mr.Gloom, it just strikes me that there has been far too much excess in recent years and whenever this happens there needs to be a cleansing period. Of course the severity of this readjustment varies, in my opinion government intervention frequently makes things worse and it seems to me that the US administration is trying too hard to bail out all those rich financiers. The repurcussions of a serious decline in the finance industry will be significant, despite what other people think about bankers, there are a lot of people indirectly employed as a result. All wages are higher on Wall Street and in the City than in other jobs this includes secretaries, clerical workers and receptionists. It explains why there are so many shops selling coffee for GBP3.50 and sandwiches for GBP4.00. As for the higher earners and those that are on corporate accounts, these guys are the reason that you can get special fried rice for USD100.00 in Manhattan, (ok it has lobster instead of shrimp and truffles shavings- but even so) and sandwiches for GBP90.00 in London. I imagine a lot of the strippers that work in London and New York and Chicago are going to find generous tippers harder to come by as well.
My younger brother phoned me today to ask how my birthday was, he has taken to calling me Hilt after the cooler king in the movie The Great Escape. He says that he oen't know anyone who self-imposes so much solitary confinement time as me. He might be on to something I have been sitting in front of all these screens so long I am beginning to feel like somebody who was institutionalised. Still if you are going to be compared with someone it doesn't get much better than Steve McQueen!
Sunday 6 January 2008
Yesterdays P&L: 0.00
Yestedays Booze: 1ltr Absolut Blue Vodka, 5 x 500ml Stella Artois, 4 x Large Gordons Gin & Tonic.
Well today is my birthday, I made it through another year! I am now 38, but depressingly am back where I started when I was 16, although with many gray hairs and a lot more scar tissue. I don't really know what to do on birthdays, apart from drink myself into oblivion. I never really enjoyed sharing the day with other people. All they want to do is make you happy but for me it is a day when I reflect on the things I should have done, but didn't and the oportunities I should have taken, but failed to do so. It has been like this for most of my life, obviously when you are a child it is different, my parents used to make every effort to make sure I had a good time and if we were travelling in a Catholic country, (which was often), Iwould believe that the Epiphany celebrations were in some way aimed at me.
As part of my current morbid thoughts, I wonder how many more birthdays I am going to have, last night I was watching / listening to quite a lot of music, (the soundtrack to my suffering today is mainly The KLF and assorted 80's pop and rock). I was listening to a lot of Elvis, (yesterday was his birthday), he would have been 73! When I rejected having my right ankle and lower leg rebuilt because they wanted me to stay in hospital for at least 6 months, the nurse putting the plaster on my leg said I would be sorry when I was older because I would be in severe pain, I was a little disturbed by the doctor who just sort of smirked and said he didn't think I would have to worry about getting too much older - what kind of quack is that? Surely their must be some sort of ethical code concerning joking about your patients mortality.
Anyway, I shall be spending the day in quite reflection and extreme stupor. There is no better way to feel sorry for yourself than with good booze and sad songs. I have already had contact from four former girlfriends, I wonder why. I am fairly confident I was the worst boyfriend any of these girls ever had and yet they can't seem to stop checking up on me, actually it is quite useful because they live in different time zones, so I get a sort of rolling international date line Happy Birthday, although it runs dry when we get to European time, (I really should make more of an effort with the local girls)!
At least the markets should be back to normal tomorrow, although Fridays rubbish US data might cause a bit of a sell off, I can't shake this feeling that this year we are going to see some serious economic problems in the world, I think it was always going to come but Bush, Paulson and Bernanke have done no good by bailing out the financial sector.
Yestedays Booze: 1ltr Absolut Blue Vodka, 5 x 500ml Stella Artois, 4 x Large Gordons Gin & Tonic.
Well today is my birthday, I made it through another year! I am now 38, but depressingly am back where I started when I was 16, although with many gray hairs and a lot more scar tissue. I don't really know what to do on birthdays, apart from drink myself into oblivion. I never really enjoyed sharing the day with other people. All they want to do is make you happy but for me it is a day when I reflect on the things I should have done, but didn't and the oportunities I should have taken, but failed to do so. It has been like this for most of my life, obviously when you are a child it is different, my parents used to make every effort to make sure I had a good time and if we were travelling in a Catholic country, (which was often), Iwould believe that the Epiphany celebrations were in some way aimed at me.
As part of my current morbid thoughts, I wonder how many more birthdays I am going to have, last night I was watching / listening to quite a lot of music, (the soundtrack to my suffering today is mainly The KLF and assorted 80's pop and rock). I was listening to a lot of Elvis, (yesterday was his birthday), he would have been 73! When I rejected having my right ankle and lower leg rebuilt because they wanted me to stay in hospital for at least 6 months, the nurse putting the plaster on my leg said I would be sorry when I was older because I would be in severe pain, I was a little disturbed by the doctor who just sort of smirked and said he didn't think I would have to worry about getting too much older - what kind of quack is that? Surely their must be some sort of ethical code concerning joking about your patients mortality.
Anyway, I shall be spending the day in quite reflection and extreme stupor. There is no better way to feel sorry for yourself than with good booze and sad songs. I have already had contact from four former girlfriends, I wonder why. I am fairly confident I was the worst boyfriend any of these girls ever had and yet they can't seem to stop checking up on me, actually it is quite useful because they live in different time zones, so I get a sort of rolling international date line Happy Birthday, although it runs dry when we get to European time, (I really should make more of an effort with the local girls)!
At least the markets should be back to normal tomorrow, although Fridays rubbish US data might cause a bit of a sell off, I can't shake this feeling that this year we are going to see some serious economic problems in the world, I think it was always going to come but Bush, Paulson and Bernanke have done no good by bailing out the financial sector.
Thursday 3 January 2008
Yesterdays P&L: GBP68.00
Yesterdays Booze: 500ml Danzka Vodka, 1 ltr Dry Irish Cider, 5 double Gordons Gin & Tonic.
The markets are still so thin, making money is a matter of luck. There is no satisfaction in picking up money like this. The fun of trading is being right, of having a view and the nerve to follow it through.
I am still so gloomy, I can't shake this feeling of dispair, perhaps it is my view on the markets rolling into my life. I wasn't always so focusse on the markets, I used to have other interests, I am sure did. I remember being in a band in high school, I remember writing songs, I recall drawing and painting, I even remember writing a book and promising myself that I would rewrite it now that I am a more mature person. Gradually all these things dissapeared from my life, just like all the girlfriends I spent so much time with. My life boiled down to one thing and when I looked up everything else had gone. The strange thing is I don't miss any of it, the girls, the fun, the life. I must be so hollow inside.
This is the third time in my life that I have lost everything and had to start again, but it feels different now. In the past I wouldn't consider my circumstances, after a decent period of wallowing in self-pity, you get back to work - you persevere! This time when I look in the mirror, even when I am at my most euphoric, I know I am fooling myself. I can see right through me and I don't have any fight left in me. I feel like a boxer who has to get off his stool because it is expected of him but deep down he just wants to throw in the towel. I am going to be 38 very soon and I really don't know how much more of this I can take.
Yesterdays Booze: 500ml Danzka Vodka, 1 ltr Dry Irish Cider, 5 double Gordons Gin & Tonic.
The markets are still so thin, making money is a matter of luck. There is no satisfaction in picking up money like this. The fun of trading is being right, of having a view and the nerve to follow it through.
I am still so gloomy, I can't shake this feeling of dispair, perhaps it is my view on the markets rolling into my life. I wasn't always so focusse on the markets, I used to have other interests, I am sure did. I remember being in a band in high school, I remember writing songs, I recall drawing and painting, I even remember writing a book and promising myself that I would rewrite it now that I am a more mature person. Gradually all these things dissapeared from my life, just like all the girlfriends I spent so much time with. My life boiled down to one thing and when I looked up everything else had gone. The strange thing is I don't miss any of it, the girls, the fun, the life. I must be so hollow inside.
This is the third time in my life that I have lost everything and had to start again, but it feels different now. In the past I wouldn't consider my circumstances, after a decent period of wallowing in self-pity, you get back to work - you persevere! This time when I look in the mirror, even when I am at my most euphoric, I know I am fooling myself. I can see right through me and I don't have any fight left in me. I feel like a boxer who has to get off his stool because it is expected of him but deep down he just wants to throw in the towel. I am going to be 38 very soon and I really don't know how much more of this I can take.
Tuesday 1 January 2008
Happy New Year
Yesterdays P&L: Nada
Yesterdays Booze: 70cl Select Imperial Vodka, 3x 500ml Stella Artois, 70cl Laurent Perrier Champagne, 500ml Patron XO Cafe, 2lt Irish Dry Cider...
So this in the New Year? It is an important time for Scottish people, but contrary to public opinion we are not all happy at this time of the year. Personally I spend it switching between extreme optimism and absolute melencholy, a lot of it depends on what music is playing - always music, never television. This year has been my worst ever, and this is only the fifth time I have had to say that! It was made worse by being alone, although in my current state, I don't think it is a good idea for me to be around people. I was invited to my younger brothers - Bah, Humbug! Actually I didn't go because I am sick as a dog, also getting across London in my current immobile state is a bit of a challange, I suspect I have broken or chipped a few more of my increasingly flawed bones, in my right ankle and my left knee, but I am limping around, You don't feel a great deal of pain after the first half a litre of booze!
My normal bursts of optimism are somewhat dampened this year because of the activity in the markets. I know the pundits and analysts are predicting the global economy will pull through and my recent track record is poor but I have a nagging suspiscion that we are about to reap the rewards of the easy credit of the last decade. Since September the interbank markets have been paralyised by fear. The finance sector has looked inside the financial alchemy they have created and rewarded a number of people and have realised that they have little or no idea what they have created. As the banks have declined to accept responsibility the central banks have been forced to provide liquidity. For the governments and central banks to bale out a flawed private sector is absurd. Wasn't George W., elected on a premise of minimal government interference in business? Isn't it a basic part of capitalism that companies that cannot survive in the commercial market place should be allowed to fail? The massive debt write-offs from these banks indicate that they are unable to manage their risks, strange because many of these companies had reinvented themselves as risk managers. The fall-out has yet to be seen but there are some examples seeping out, Florida state workers not receiving their pay, obscure towns in Norway cutting back on social benefits and you can be sure that there will soon be many more. The central banks are pumping in liquidity and, significantly, have widened the scope of the collateral they will accept. They are in effect buying time for the financial sector - all the while the dragon of inflation is shimmering in the air. The governments feed you some bizarre inflation number, but it is meaningless. Anyone who doesn't believe inflation is far higher than admitted isn't living in the real world, sure you can buy a chinese DVD player for15 pounds and arn't those big screen LCD screens cheap nowdays but check out the cost of your food and your heating. It is only going to get worse, the ill-informed and enviromentally destructive push for bio-diesel has seen the cost of basic crops spiral, it is inevitable that this will be passed on to the consumer. Another factor we haven't felt yet is the full impact of the rising oil prices. I can't help but laugh when the cheerleaders on CNBC or Bloomberg celebrate the fact that the price of a barrel of crude has gone down to $90. Doesn't anyone remember 2 years ago when all the talk was "could oil reach $60"? Everything we buy is transported by oil and packaged in oil derivatives - sooner or later the prices will be passed on to us. I don't even want to start talking about the environment and carbon emissions, expect a post on that sham soon.
Anyway I will return to my drinking and thoughts, I am quite gloomy just now because the current music is Dire Straits. Mark Knopfler is an extra-ordinary musician and song writer but the song "It Never Rains" from the Love Over Gold album has to be the saddest song I have ever heard. I wonder what it means when he sings " I hear the Seven Deadly Sins
And the Terrible Twins came to call on you" What are the terrible twins - anyone who knows, educate me please.
Yesterdays Booze: 70cl Select Imperial Vodka, 3x 500ml Stella Artois, 70cl Laurent Perrier Champagne, 500ml Patron XO Cafe, 2lt Irish Dry Cider...
So this in the New Year? It is an important time for Scottish people, but contrary to public opinion we are not all happy at this time of the year. Personally I spend it switching between extreme optimism and absolute melencholy, a lot of it depends on what music is playing - always music, never television. This year has been my worst ever, and this is only the fifth time I have had to say that! It was made worse by being alone, although in my current state, I don't think it is a good idea for me to be around people. I was invited to my younger brothers - Bah, Humbug! Actually I didn't go because I am sick as a dog, also getting across London in my current immobile state is a bit of a challange, I suspect I have broken or chipped a few more of my increasingly flawed bones, in my right ankle and my left knee, but I am limping around, You don't feel a great deal of pain after the first half a litre of booze!
My normal bursts of optimism are somewhat dampened this year because of the activity in the markets. I know the pundits and analysts are predicting the global economy will pull through and my recent track record is poor but I have a nagging suspiscion that we are about to reap the rewards of the easy credit of the last decade. Since September the interbank markets have been paralyised by fear. The finance sector has looked inside the financial alchemy they have created and rewarded a number of people and have realised that they have little or no idea what they have created. As the banks have declined to accept responsibility the central banks have been forced to provide liquidity. For the governments and central banks to bale out a flawed private sector is absurd. Wasn't George W., elected on a premise of minimal government interference in business? Isn't it a basic part of capitalism that companies that cannot survive in the commercial market place should be allowed to fail? The massive debt write-offs from these banks indicate that they are unable to manage their risks, strange because many of these companies had reinvented themselves as risk managers. The fall-out has yet to be seen but there are some examples seeping out, Florida state workers not receiving their pay, obscure towns in Norway cutting back on social benefits and you can be sure that there will soon be many more. The central banks are pumping in liquidity and, significantly, have widened the scope of the collateral they will accept. They are in effect buying time for the financial sector - all the while the dragon of inflation is shimmering in the air. The governments feed you some bizarre inflation number, but it is meaningless. Anyone who doesn't believe inflation is far higher than admitted isn't living in the real world, sure you can buy a chinese DVD player for15 pounds and arn't those big screen LCD screens cheap nowdays but check out the cost of your food and your heating. It is only going to get worse, the ill-informed and enviromentally destructive push for bio-diesel has seen the cost of basic crops spiral, it is inevitable that this will be passed on to the consumer. Another factor we haven't felt yet is the full impact of the rising oil prices. I can't help but laugh when the cheerleaders on CNBC or Bloomberg celebrate the fact that the price of a barrel of crude has gone down to $90. Doesn't anyone remember 2 years ago when all the talk was "could oil reach $60"? Everything we buy is transported by oil and packaged in oil derivatives - sooner or later the prices will be passed on to us. I don't even want to start talking about the environment and carbon emissions, expect a post on that sham soon.
Anyway I will return to my drinking and thoughts, I am quite gloomy just now because the current music is Dire Straits. Mark Knopfler is an extra-ordinary musician and song writer but the song "It Never Rains" from the Love Over Gold album has to be the saddest song I have ever heard. I wonder what it means when he sings " I hear the Seven Deadly Sins
And the Terrible Twins came to call on you" What are the terrible twins - anyone who knows, educate me please.
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