Friday 23 October 2009

Storm Warning

Fridays P&L: GBP 485.00

Fridays Booze: 3 liters of some organic cider, 1 liter of red wine, 1 large Vodka on ice.

Another relatively pointless day. Spot cable, (GBP/USD), took a massive hit of 400 points because the recession in the UK isn't over as Germany, France and The US are making signs of recovering. In my opinion we are just being more honest. I took a beating on the foreign exchange futures I had but made a profit on a short position on the DAX.

Last night in the UK we had the head of the British National Party on the tv. He is, as you would expect, a loathsome character and he is supposed to be the friendly public face of his party but I have to admit he made some good points. I should hate this guy and all he stands for, after all I am nothing if not an internationalist and aside from my love of London as one of the truly great cities in the world I have no overwhelming attachment to the UK. I am aware, though of how some British people are feeling regarding the overwhelming immigration into the UK and worse, the insistence of certain groups to have their traditions and beliefs respected above those of their new country. While it is meaningless to me, I have lived in muslim countries, (only relatively secular ones), and have seen the friction that can be caused. I wouldn't really want that in Britain. I wonder why the UK is the target for so many immigrants, I mean in theory we are all part of Europe and the living standards in Germany and Sweden are much better than in the UK, so why the surge to Britain. I can only assume the benefits system here really is more advantageous. I wouldn't really know as I have never claimed benefits in my life but I have taken advantage of the health system. My concern is that the likes of the BNP cater to the dumbed down, me now generation.

Anyway, another weekend looms ahead, the recent cold weather pays havoc with my ankles and knees, I mean I am still mobile, but after all those fractures there is bound to be some residual pain - the most irritating is in my right knee which feels like a burning spike deep inside the knee cap. There is no way to relieve this, you can't scratch it like an itch you just have to learn to ignore it. That was a lot easier when I was drinking 2 or more liters of vodka a day. Anyway enough of feeling sorry for myself. Lets just hope next week is better.

Thursday 22 October 2009

Thursdays P&L: GBP390.00

Thursdays Booze: Last bottle of Chateau de Beaucastel 2000, 8 cans of Kronenbourg 1664

What to think about today? The markets still defy reason. After taking a fairly severe beating on some index shorts I had, I am taking money where I can find it, just to try and rebuild some capital. I am sure in the long-run I will be right, but trading isn't about being right - its a business and timing is everything.

Here in the UK we have one of our crazy right wing nationalists appearing on the tv tonight. I will be interested in hearing what the old crackpot has to say. My girlfriend is a foreigner who just happens to have come from a fairly wealthy background. Having said that she has never shied away from an honest days work in her life and has donated far more to charity, (in this country and abroad), than I ever have. I would be prepared to bet loads of money that she has donated more in charity and time to the underprivileged in this country than Nick Griffin ever has. So is she welcome because she contributes? if that is the case then the man is more hypocritical than I thought. I do believe that the BNP in this country is a bit of a sideshow, something to take our minds of the true dismal situation and corruption. You just have to look at the protesters on Sky tv. Some of them clearly don't know if they are protesting against racism or climate change or globalization. One things for sure they all have that smug self-satisfied look of people who have never endured hardship but are willing to cry on someones shoulder about other peoples situation. I only have to see the red dyed hair and nasal piercing to tune out before someone tells me about the terrible situation in Nepal or in Burma.

Friday 16 October 2009

Fridays P&L: GBP 120!!!!

Fridays Booze: 2 bottles of cheap french red wine, 1 litre of dry cider


Still on Doctors orders as far as the grog goes, I am craving spirits so much. Am I an addict? I don't doubt it, the quack thinks I am lucky to be alive, but you know what? All that booze I drunk, all the risks I took they never impaired my work - My birthday in January, never thought I would be so old.

The girlfriend is harassing me. Wants to get married, I can't help wondering who the fuck would want to marry someone like me. Its not that I think I am a bad person, on the contrary - I think I am an excellent fellow. Would I want my daughter, (if I had one), to marry someone like myself? Not in a million years. There are plenty of decent blokes out there, guys who are falling over themselves to find suitable girls. I have always really regarded any women I went out with as rather lucky to have met me.

The markets are dead right now, small chance of me making my fortune back if this continues. Maybe I am just not seeing the chances, it wouldn't surprise me I have had rather a lot on my mind lately.

Saturday 10 October 2009

Working Men

Fridays P&L: GBP 1,200

Fridays Booze: 8 pints of Stella Artois, 1 bottle Tinto Pesquera 1994

What a strange day. The markets continue to believe that everything is good. A year on in and the crisis is over. Yet something doesn't sit right. Was this financial crisis so temporary? Could it really be solved by just injecting unlimited capital into the banking system? The politicians in the UK have been on holiday and seem focused on dealing with the troublesome issue of their expenses when they return. The part conferences have shown that deep down and despite whatever promises they make, non of the politicians have any idea how to address the gaping whole in our national finances. The American Politicians are basking in the reflected glory of Obama and his Nobel prize, (for which he was nominated after just 11 days in office).

Its the Americans I feel sorriest for. They seem unable to accept their new role in the world and hope things will return to normal, but how can it? The securities houses of Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Merril Lynch, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are all gone. OK, they still exist apart from Lehmans, but they have all been forced into unfavorable mergers or converted into FDIC regulated bank holding companies. These companies that survived the depression, both world wars and all the recessions of the last century just collapsed under the weight of their own hubris and greed. The same thing happened here in the UK. RBS, the biggest British bank with total assets exceeding the GDP of the country floundered, so did HBOS, the biggest mortgage lender in the country. These banks were rescued at an unknown cost, (the full cost to the country will never be revealed), because what was the alternative? The banks not opening the next day, people unable to withdraw cash from ATM's salaries not being paid into bank accounts, businesses unable to pay suppliers. In effect the complete meltdown of the modern society we have grown to depend on. We were literally hours away from this happening. and yet when I walk around London most people seem unaware.

It isn't the case with a lot of the trading community, I spoke to a few ex-colleagues who have come close to committing suicide. Its easy to distract the general public with stories of huge bonuses and yes, many investment bankers and traders earned huge salaries, but these were earned, contracts were established and generally bonuses were similar in percentage terms to top salespeople in other fields. Just the revenues were exceptional. Anyway, the bubble has been reinflated, but the future consequences are unknown. One thing is for sure, things will never be the same again.