Yesterdays P&L: GBP287.00
Yesterdays Booze: 70cl Imperial Standard Russian Vodka, 3 x Large Gordons Gin & Tonic, 6 pack of Heineken Lager.
Lee Marvin on the juke box - Wandering Star! I often wonder about all the travelling I have done, it seems so natural to me. Even though my parents tried to give some stability to our lives, my family feels like it is fluid, in constant motion. So it was natural for me to be restless.
I have travelled a lot, Africa, South & Central America, North America, Europe (of course) and mostly in Asia. I love travelling and I still get a thrill when I am on a plane or ship heading somewhere. I realised fairly quickly that I am not the back-packer type, well actually I am to a certain extent, a friend in Indonesia once said to me you are the first 5 star backpacker I ever met. You see, I like to go off the beaten track, but I do like to travel in style. I enjoy staying in top hotels and flying first or business class. But then I also enjoy going to the dodgier parts of town and hanging out in the less salubrious places.
When I was based in Bangkok , I travelled to most of the regional hot-spots, (Ho Chi-Minh, KL, Singapore, Penang, Bali, Jakarta, Hong Kong), with regularity but I also liked to visit places such as Yangon, Manilla, Pnohm Pen, Guangdong, Pusan and lots of Indonesian towns that I am well acquainted with. The problem with going to so many places is that you forget how special they are. I have never been much of a tourist in terms of buying local bric-a-brac and taking photographs but I often wonder if perhaps I should have been. Many of the places I have been and the things I have seen will never exist in that form again. The world is changing and it is certain to change the places we visit. When I went to Shanghai, Pudong was little more than a swamp, but you only have to look at a photograph of it now to see the changes 12 years have made. I remember climbing up the ancient Hindu temple of Borabadur in Java to see the sun rise, all the Japanese tourists gasped and took pictures I had a nice cold drink, (booze of course). I remember being alone in the officers bar of the ship my father worked on leaning over the deck and stairwell outside Apapa quay in Lagos, Nigeria. The city behind me and the odd purple phosphorus glow of the water surrounding the ship - Heartbeat City by The Cars playing to me.
I often think that I am so unlucky to not see what will happen in the future, you know - will it be like what the movies tell us, but at the same time I feel sorry for the people who will never see the world as it was before this globalisation. Never be able to see countries like Thailand before it became a charter destination.
Wednesday 16 January 2008
Sunday 13 January 2008
Fridays P&L: GBP198.00
Yesterdays Booze: 70cl Imperial Russian Vodka, 2 x Bombay Sapphire Martinis, 3 x 500ml Stella Artois, 70 cl cheap French white wine.
So another day, another dollar, the bad feelings in the markets continue. The rumours on Friday where that Merrill Lynch is going to post as much as USD15bn in credit related write-downs and that Citibank is going to post a similar number, despit both institutions claiming they had drawn a line under their losses in the 3rd quarter. These numbers are staggering and unsurprisingly, both institutions are supposedly trawling Asia and the Middle-East for additional capital investment. No doubt the market will respond positively to foreign investment in these companies, but surely America should be questioning itself. For years America has been shifting itself from an industrial economy to a service orientated economy. The financial sector is a key part of the information based economy that the US sees as key to maintaining its pre-eminent position in the world. And yet key components such as Citi and Merrill are being sold piecemeal to foreign governments. It may be too early to count America out, but it is difficult to see where the future of the US is if a worst-case style depression occurs. The phenomenal wealth generated post WW2 may dissapate, just as the baby-boomers need it most. If the government decides to lower rates to kick-start the economy and US treasuries lose their attractiveness to investors then the US will be exposed to inflation and currency devaluation. I have been in a few countries that experienced hyper-inflation and one thing is clear is that the most affected are the middle-class. The USA is ill-placed to withstand a genuine attack of inflation and while I am not quite as doom and gloom laden as legendary investor Julian Roberts, I can see this as being one of the most trying times for the most important economy in the world.
Yesterdays Booze: 70cl Imperial Russian Vodka, 2 x Bombay Sapphire Martinis, 3 x 500ml Stella Artois, 70 cl cheap French white wine.
So another day, another dollar, the bad feelings in the markets continue. The rumours on Friday where that Merrill Lynch is going to post as much as USD15bn in credit related write-downs and that Citibank is going to post a similar number, despit both institutions claiming they had drawn a line under their losses in the 3rd quarter. These numbers are staggering and unsurprisingly, both institutions are supposedly trawling Asia and the Middle-East for additional capital investment. No doubt the market will respond positively to foreign investment in these companies, but surely America should be questioning itself. For years America has been shifting itself from an industrial economy to a service orientated economy. The financial sector is a key part of the information based economy that the US sees as key to maintaining its pre-eminent position in the world. And yet key components such as Citi and Merrill are being sold piecemeal to foreign governments. It may be too early to count America out, but it is difficult to see where the future of the US is if a worst-case style depression occurs. The phenomenal wealth generated post WW2 may dissapate, just as the baby-boomers need it most. If the government decides to lower rates to kick-start the economy and US treasuries lose their attractiveness to investors then the US will be exposed to inflation and currency devaluation. I have been in a few countries that experienced hyper-inflation and one thing is clear is that the most affected are the middle-class. The USA is ill-placed to withstand a genuine attack of inflation and while I am not quite as doom and gloom laden as legendary investor Julian Roberts, I can see this as being one of the most trying times for the most important economy in the world.
Tuesday 8 January 2008
Yesterdys P&L: GBP228.00
Yestedays Booze: 500ml Danzka Blackcurrent Vodka, 2 x 500ml Stella Artois, 3 x Gordons Gin & light tonic, (New Years resolution), 1ltr Dry Irish Cider.
So back to work, the markets are returning to some level of reasonable activity, (it doesn't last long - soon the traders in Wall Street will be preparing for their Easter break). Maybe lower wages are the answer, might make the bastards work harder! I have heard from a friend that the lay-offs have started at Merril Lynch, (the thundering herd as they used to be known), apparantly a lot of analysts, traders and salespeople are dismayed to find out the standard package is 3 months salary and a maximum bonus of USD25,000. My heart bleeds, it should be remembered that these clowns lost billions of dollars, (USD8billion in last years 3rd quarter), and forced one of the oldest securities companies in America to seek capital from Singapore. The CEO of Bear Stearns is also likely to take the fall today, no doubt with a suitably large pay-off. When Stan O'Neal got the Push from Merrill his package was reported as between USD90-162 million, not bad for letting the company take a dive on your watch.
I still predict hard times ahead and not just because I am Mr.Gloom, it just strikes me that there has been far too much excess in recent years and whenever this happens there needs to be a cleansing period. Of course the severity of this readjustment varies, in my opinion government intervention frequently makes things worse and it seems to me that the US administration is trying too hard to bail out all those rich financiers. The repurcussions of a serious decline in the finance industry will be significant, despite what other people think about bankers, there are a lot of people indirectly employed as a result. All wages are higher on Wall Street and in the City than in other jobs this includes secretaries, clerical workers and receptionists. It explains why there are so many shops selling coffee for GBP3.50 and sandwiches for GBP4.00. As for the higher earners and those that are on corporate accounts, these guys are the reason that you can get special fried rice for USD100.00 in Manhattan, (ok it has lobster instead of shrimp and truffles shavings- but even so) and sandwiches for GBP90.00 in London. I imagine a lot of the strippers that work in London and New York and Chicago are going to find generous tippers harder to come by as well.
My younger brother phoned me today to ask how my birthday was, he has taken to calling me Hilt after the cooler king in the movie The Great Escape. He says that he oen't know anyone who self-imposes so much solitary confinement time as me. He might be on to something I have been sitting in front of all these screens so long I am beginning to feel like somebody who was institutionalised. Still if you are going to be compared with someone it doesn't get much better than Steve McQueen!
Yestedays Booze: 500ml Danzka Blackcurrent Vodka, 2 x 500ml Stella Artois, 3 x Gordons Gin & light tonic, (New Years resolution), 1ltr Dry Irish Cider.
So back to work, the markets are returning to some level of reasonable activity, (it doesn't last long - soon the traders in Wall Street will be preparing for their Easter break). Maybe lower wages are the answer, might make the bastards work harder! I have heard from a friend that the lay-offs have started at Merril Lynch, (the thundering herd as they used to be known), apparantly a lot of analysts, traders and salespeople are dismayed to find out the standard package is 3 months salary and a maximum bonus of USD25,000. My heart bleeds, it should be remembered that these clowns lost billions of dollars, (USD8billion in last years 3rd quarter), and forced one of the oldest securities companies in America to seek capital from Singapore. The CEO of Bear Stearns is also likely to take the fall today, no doubt with a suitably large pay-off. When Stan O'Neal got the Push from Merrill his package was reported as between USD90-162 million, not bad for letting the company take a dive on your watch.
I still predict hard times ahead and not just because I am Mr.Gloom, it just strikes me that there has been far too much excess in recent years and whenever this happens there needs to be a cleansing period. Of course the severity of this readjustment varies, in my opinion government intervention frequently makes things worse and it seems to me that the US administration is trying too hard to bail out all those rich financiers. The repurcussions of a serious decline in the finance industry will be significant, despite what other people think about bankers, there are a lot of people indirectly employed as a result. All wages are higher on Wall Street and in the City than in other jobs this includes secretaries, clerical workers and receptionists. It explains why there are so many shops selling coffee for GBP3.50 and sandwiches for GBP4.00. As for the higher earners and those that are on corporate accounts, these guys are the reason that you can get special fried rice for USD100.00 in Manhattan, (ok it has lobster instead of shrimp and truffles shavings- but even so) and sandwiches for GBP90.00 in London. I imagine a lot of the strippers that work in London and New York and Chicago are going to find generous tippers harder to come by as well.
My younger brother phoned me today to ask how my birthday was, he has taken to calling me Hilt after the cooler king in the movie The Great Escape. He says that he oen't know anyone who self-imposes so much solitary confinement time as me. He might be on to something I have been sitting in front of all these screens so long I am beginning to feel like somebody who was institutionalised. Still if you are going to be compared with someone it doesn't get much better than Steve McQueen!
Sunday 6 January 2008
Yesterdays P&L: 0.00
Yestedays Booze: 1ltr Absolut Blue Vodka, 5 x 500ml Stella Artois, 4 x Large Gordons Gin & Tonic.
Well today is my birthday, I made it through another year! I am now 38, but depressingly am back where I started when I was 16, although with many gray hairs and a lot more scar tissue. I don't really know what to do on birthdays, apart from drink myself into oblivion. I never really enjoyed sharing the day with other people. All they want to do is make you happy but for me it is a day when I reflect on the things I should have done, but didn't and the oportunities I should have taken, but failed to do so. It has been like this for most of my life, obviously when you are a child it is different, my parents used to make every effort to make sure I had a good time and if we were travelling in a Catholic country, (which was often), Iwould believe that the Epiphany celebrations were in some way aimed at me.
As part of my current morbid thoughts, I wonder how many more birthdays I am going to have, last night I was watching / listening to quite a lot of music, (the soundtrack to my suffering today is mainly The KLF and assorted 80's pop and rock). I was listening to a lot of Elvis, (yesterday was his birthday), he would have been 73! When I rejected having my right ankle and lower leg rebuilt because they wanted me to stay in hospital for at least 6 months, the nurse putting the plaster on my leg said I would be sorry when I was older because I would be in severe pain, I was a little disturbed by the doctor who just sort of smirked and said he didn't think I would have to worry about getting too much older - what kind of quack is that? Surely their must be some sort of ethical code concerning joking about your patients mortality.
Anyway, I shall be spending the day in quite reflection and extreme stupor. There is no better way to feel sorry for yourself than with good booze and sad songs. I have already had contact from four former girlfriends, I wonder why. I am fairly confident I was the worst boyfriend any of these girls ever had and yet they can't seem to stop checking up on me, actually it is quite useful because they live in different time zones, so I get a sort of rolling international date line Happy Birthday, although it runs dry when we get to European time, (I really should make more of an effort with the local girls)!
At least the markets should be back to normal tomorrow, although Fridays rubbish US data might cause a bit of a sell off, I can't shake this feeling that this year we are going to see some serious economic problems in the world, I think it was always going to come but Bush, Paulson and Bernanke have done no good by bailing out the financial sector.
Yestedays Booze: 1ltr Absolut Blue Vodka, 5 x 500ml Stella Artois, 4 x Large Gordons Gin & Tonic.
Well today is my birthday, I made it through another year! I am now 38, but depressingly am back where I started when I was 16, although with many gray hairs and a lot more scar tissue. I don't really know what to do on birthdays, apart from drink myself into oblivion. I never really enjoyed sharing the day with other people. All they want to do is make you happy but for me it is a day when I reflect on the things I should have done, but didn't and the oportunities I should have taken, but failed to do so. It has been like this for most of my life, obviously when you are a child it is different, my parents used to make every effort to make sure I had a good time and if we were travelling in a Catholic country, (which was often), Iwould believe that the Epiphany celebrations were in some way aimed at me.
As part of my current morbid thoughts, I wonder how many more birthdays I am going to have, last night I was watching / listening to quite a lot of music, (the soundtrack to my suffering today is mainly The KLF and assorted 80's pop and rock). I was listening to a lot of Elvis, (yesterday was his birthday), he would have been 73! When I rejected having my right ankle and lower leg rebuilt because they wanted me to stay in hospital for at least 6 months, the nurse putting the plaster on my leg said I would be sorry when I was older because I would be in severe pain, I was a little disturbed by the doctor who just sort of smirked and said he didn't think I would have to worry about getting too much older - what kind of quack is that? Surely their must be some sort of ethical code concerning joking about your patients mortality.
Anyway, I shall be spending the day in quite reflection and extreme stupor. There is no better way to feel sorry for yourself than with good booze and sad songs. I have already had contact from four former girlfriends, I wonder why. I am fairly confident I was the worst boyfriend any of these girls ever had and yet they can't seem to stop checking up on me, actually it is quite useful because they live in different time zones, so I get a sort of rolling international date line Happy Birthday, although it runs dry when we get to European time, (I really should make more of an effort with the local girls)!
At least the markets should be back to normal tomorrow, although Fridays rubbish US data might cause a bit of a sell off, I can't shake this feeling that this year we are going to see some serious economic problems in the world, I think it was always going to come but Bush, Paulson and Bernanke have done no good by bailing out the financial sector.
Thursday 3 January 2008
Yesterdays P&L: GBP68.00
Yesterdays Booze: 500ml Danzka Vodka, 1 ltr Dry Irish Cider, 5 double Gordons Gin & Tonic.
The markets are still so thin, making money is a matter of luck. There is no satisfaction in picking up money like this. The fun of trading is being right, of having a view and the nerve to follow it through.
I am still so gloomy, I can't shake this feeling of dispair, perhaps it is my view on the markets rolling into my life. I wasn't always so focusse on the markets, I used to have other interests, I am sure did. I remember being in a band in high school, I remember writing songs, I recall drawing and painting, I even remember writing a book and promising myself that I would rewrite it now that I am a more mature person. Gradually all these things dissapeared from my life, just like all the girlfriends I spent so much time with. My life boiled down to one thing and when I looked up everything else had gone. The strange thing is I don't miss any of it, the girls, the fun, the life. I must be so hollow inside.
This is the third time in my life that I have lost everything and had to start again, but it feels different now. In the past I wouldn't consider my circumstances, after a decent period of wallowing in self-pity, you get back to work - you persevere! This time when I look in the mirror, even when I am at my most euphoric, I know I am fooling myself. I can see right through me and I don't have any fight left in me. I feel like a boxer who has to get off his stool because it is expected of him but deep down he just wants to throw in the towel. I am going to be 38 very soon and I really don't know how much more of this I can take.
Yesterdays Booze: 500ml Danzka Vodka, 1 ltr Dry Irish Cider, 5 double Gordons Gin & Tonic.
The markets are still so thin, making money is a matter of luck. There is no satisfaction in picking up money like this. The fun of trading is being right, of having a view and the nerve to follow it through.
I am still so gloomy, I can't shake this feeling of dispair, perhaps it is my view on the markets rolling into my life. I wasn't always so focusse on the markets, I used to have other interests, I am sure did. I remember being in a band in high school, I remember writing songs, I recall drawing and painting, I even remember writing a book and promising myself that I would rewrite it now that I am a more mature person. Gradually all these things dissapeared from my life, just like all the girlfriends I spent so much time with. My life boiled down to one thing and when I looked up everything else had gone. The strange thing is I don't miss any of it, the girls, the fun, the life. I must be so hollow inside.
This is the third time in my life that I have lost everything and had to start again, but it feels different now. In the past I wouldn't consider my circumstances, after a decent period of wallowing in self-pity, you get back to work - you persevere! This time when I look in the mirror, even when I am at my most euphoric, I know I am fooling myself. I can see right through me and I don't have any fight left in me. I feel like a boxer who has to get off his stool because it is expected of him but deep down he just wants to throw in the towel. I am going to be 38 very soon and I really don't know how much more of this I can take.
Tuesday 1 January 2008
Happy New Year
Yesterdays P&L: Nada
Yesterdays Booze: 70cl Select Imperial Vodka, 3x 500ml Stella Artois, 70cl Laurent Perrier Champagne, 500ml Patron XO Cafe, 2lt Irish Dry Cider...
So this in the New Year? It is an important time for Scottish people, but contrary to public opinion we are not all happy at this time of the year. Personally I spend it switching between extreme optimism and absolute melencholy, a lot of it depends on what music is playing - always music, never television. This year has been my worst ever, and this is only the fifth time I have had to say that! It was made worse by being alone, although in my current state, I don't think it is a good idea for me to be around people. I was invited to my younger brothers - Bah, Humbug! Actually I didn't go because I am sick as a dog, also getting across London in my current immobile state is a bit of a challange, I suspect I have broken or chipped a few more of my increasingly flawed bones, in my right ankle and my left knee, but I am limping around, You don't feel a great deal of pain after the first half a litre of booze!
My normal bursts of optimism are somewhat dampened this year because of the activity in the markets. I know the pundits and analysts are predicting the global economy will pull through and my recent track record is poor but I have a nagging suspiscion that we are about to reap the rewards of the easy credit of the last decade. Since September the interbank markets have been paralyised by fear. The finance sector has looked inside the financial alchemy they have created and rewarded a number of people and have realised that they have little or no idea what they have created. As the banks have declined to accept responsibility the central banks have been forced to provide liquidity. For the governments and central banks to bale out a flawed private sector is absurd. Wasn't George W., elected on a premise of minimal government interference in business? Isn't it a basic part of capitalism that companies that cannot survive in the commercial market place should be allowed to fail? The massive debt write-offs from these banks indicate that they are unable to manage their risks, strange because many of these companies had reinvented themselves as risk managers. The fall-out has yet to be seen but there are some examples seeping out, Florida state workers not receiving their pay, obscure towns in Norway cutting back on social benefits and you can be sure that there will soon be many more. The central banks are pumping in liquidity and, significantly, have widened the scope of the collateral they will accept. They are in effect buying time for the financial sector - all the while the dragon of inflation is shimmering in the air. The governments feed you some bizarre inflation number, but it is meaningless. Anyone who doesn't believe inflation is far higher than admitted isn't living in the real world, sure you can buy a chinese DVD player for15 pounds and arn't those big screen LCD screens cheap nowdays but check out the cost of your food and your heating. It is only going to get worse, the ill-informed and enviromentally destructive push for bio-diesel has seen the cost of basic crops spiral, it is inevitable that this will be passed on to the consumer. Another factor we haven't felt yet is the full impact of the rising oil prices. I can't help but laugh when the cheerleaders on CNBC or Bloomberg celebrate the fact that the price of a barrel of crude has gone down to $90. Doesn't anyone remember 2 years ago when all the talk was "could oil reach $60"? Everything we buy is transported by oil and packaged in oil derivatives - sooner or later the prices will be passed on to us. I don't even want to start talking about the environment and carbon emissions, expect a post on that sham soon.
Anyway I will return to my drinking and thoughts, I am quite gloomy just now because the current music is Dire Straits. Mark Knopfler is an extra-ordinary musician and song writer but the song "It Never Rains" from the Love Over Gold album has to be the saddest song I have ever heard. I wonder what it means when he sings " I hear the Seven Deadly Sins
And the Terrible Twins came to call on you" What are the terrible twins - anyone who knows, educate me please.
Yesterdays Booze: 70cl Select Imperial Vodka, 3x 500ml Stella Artois, 70cl Laurent Perrier Champagne, 500ml Patron XO Cafe, 2lt Irish Dry Cider...
So this in the New Year? It is an important time for Scottish people, but contrary to public opinion we are not all happy at this time of the year. Personally I spend it switching between extreme optimism and absolute melencholy, a lot of it depends on what music is playing - always music, never television. This year has been my worst ever, and this is only the fifth time I have had to say that! It was made worse by being alone, although in my current state, I don't think it is a good idea for me to be around people. I was invited to my younger brothers - Bah, Humbug! Actually I didn't go because I am sick as a dog, also getting across London in my current immobile state is a bit of a challange, I suspect I have broken or chipped a few more of my increasingly flawed bones, in my right ankle and my left knee, but I am limping around, You don't feel a great deal of pain after the first half a litre of booze!
My normal bursts of optimism are somewhat dampened this year because of the activity in the markets. I know the pundits and analysts are predicting the global economy will pull through and my recent track record is poor but I have a nagging suspiscion that we are about to reap the rewards of the easy credit of the last decade. Since September the interbank markets have been paralyised by fear. The finance sector has looked inside the financial alchemy they have created and rewarded a number of people and have realised that they have little or no idea what they have created. As the banks have declined to accept responsibility the central banks have been forced to provide liquidity. For the governments and central banks to bale out a flawed private sector is absurd. Wasn't George W., elected on a premise of minimal government interference in business? Isn't it a basic part of capitalism that companies that cannot survive in the commercial market place should be allowed to fail? The massive debt write-offs from these banks indicate that they are unable to manage their risks, strange because many of these companies had reinvented themselves as risk managers. The fall-out has yet to be seen but there are some examples seeping out, Florida state workers not receiving their pay, obscure towns in Norway cutting back on social benefits and you can be sure that there will soon be many more. The central banks are pumping in liquidity and, significantly, have widened the scope of the collateral they will accept. They are in effect buying time for the financial sector - all the while the dragon of inflation is shimmering in the air. The governments feed you some bizarre inflation number, but it is meaningless. Anyone who doesn't believe inflation is far higher than admitted isn't living in the real world, sure you can buy a chinese DVD player for15 pounds and arn't those big screen LCD screens cheap nowdays but check out the cost of your food and your heating. It is only going to get worse, the ill-informed and enviromentally destructive push for bio-diesel has seen the cost of basic crops spiral, it is inevitable that this will be passed on to the consumer. Another factor we haven't felt yet is the full impact of the rising oil prices. I can't help but laugh when the cheerleaders on CNBC or Bloomberg celebrate the fact that the price of a barrel of crude has gone down to $90. Doesn't anyone remember 2 years ago when all the talk was "could oil reach $60"? Everything we buy is transported by oil and packaged in oil derivatives - sooner or later the prices will be passed on to us. I don't even want to start talking about the environment and carbon emissions, expect a post on that sham soon.
Anyway I will return to my drinking and thoughts, I am quite gloomy just now because the current music is Dire Straits. Mark Knopfler is an extra-ordinary musician and song writer but the song "It Never Rains" from the Love Over Gold album has to be the saddest song I have ever heard. I wonder what it means when he sings " I hear the Seven Deadly Sins
And the Terrible Twins came to call on you" What are the terrible twins - anyone who knows, educate me please.
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