Monday 12 September 2011

Feeling Better?

Fridays P&L: GBP 340.00

Fridays Booze: 8 pints of Stella Artois

Fridays Soundtrack: Music to kill time too


Friday saw the markets take another downward trend. Their was a brief rally during the week but I fail to see any reason why. Many analysts point out that the markets are trading at relatively low price earnings ratios, which is true but in the current global climate, a world where seemingly all the previous rules don't apply, these things are meaningless. The continuing rise in the price of gold and the somewhat crazy decision of the Swiss central bank to draw a fixed exchange rate are proof that the world is looking for any stability. America is seemingly trapped in a jobless stasis. There is no credible solution, all the politicians are concerned about are the next elections. The Fed has painted itself into a corner similar to the one it criticized Japan for although Americas corporate sector is hardly as paternal as that of Japan. Further quantitative easing will do little more than increase the debt burden. Europe is in an even worse situation, the imposed currency restrictions of the Euro are causing the inevitable pain to the weaker nations and it remains a matter of time before Germany has to admit it cant pay for all of Europe. From a traders perspective, taking a chance on high yielding Spanish or Italian debt seems a sure fire way to make money in the short-term. At this stage Greek debt is probably too close to default to take a chance on. The UK is also in an equally dire situation, the coalition seems unable to make any headway and is just happy to blame everything on the previous administration. The banking sector, previously models of corporate success seem hopelessly mired in failure, the NHS, which I personally owe a great deal to, is continuing to bleed money and is surrounded by inept management and unnecessary government tinkering. In short it is all very bleak.


My personal life continues to be problematic, I nearly pissed off the Stalker enough for her to leave me but as usual she decided to give me another chance. This is strange because I am not very pleasant and she has no sympathy for my medical condition so its not like she is giving me an easy ride. My health continues to be a little dodgy but after a recent CT scan the operator said he can't see any sign of cirrhosis although my Pancreas is still fucked, predictably my way of taking the good news was to have a few pints - I'll never learn. Predictably my mother took my repaired liver as a gift from God, due to my new found faith, although I am hardly devout and in no way worthy of any miracle. My mother was there three of the times I was diagnosed with cirrhosis so she hopes for the best.

Today's music, my top five tracks:

Don't You Forget About Me - Simple Minds are two steps from the eighties revival circuit and yet at one point were absolutely huge. This song is always going to be known as the song from the Breakfast Club but its a great track on its own. I suppose I am a sucker for power chords and wearing your heart on your sleeve. In some ways I haven't changed since I was fourteen.

living For The City - Stevie Wonder is always great to listen to if you imagine yourself as a star in a blaxploitation movie, and this song is one of the best. I am always attracted to the countryside no matter which country I have lived in but can't shake the draw of urban living, the few times I have spent anytime in the country or jungle I have grown bored quite quickly.

The Chain - Fleetwood Mac in the middle of one of the most dysfunctional relationships in music during the recording of Rumors - is it any wonder I like this song. The lyric "If you don't love me now, we'll never love again", reminds me of the demands that the Stalker and especially the Lunatic placed upon me. I suppose I look at relationships the wrong way but I know I am selfish and arrogant neither of which are attractive qualities.

Pandora's Box - OMD and my eighties obsession. Apparently this song was inspired by Louise Brooks who featured heavily in the video. It seems to me to be about the need to escape the mundane life, something I feel empathy with. It is also a little about obsession.

Unfinished Sympathy - Massive Attack, I just like the way this song sounds. It reminds me of my brother for some reason although there are many things that remind me of him.


In case I don't see 'ya...good afternoon, good evening, and goodnight!

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Good to read your post, Toni.
Your health sounds better than that of the Euro!!
Bridget

Anonymous said...

So how good a pick is Spanish and Italian debt? I have money to invest for the first time in my life and am thinking this might be a good option.

Toni said...

Thanks Bridget - its a miracle I am still alive - hope you are well.

Anonymous it's a really risky trade, once the Greeks default there will be huge pressure on Italy, Spain and Portugal.Its really an in and out trade you look for yield to maturity when the YTM gets to 80-90% the market is pricing in a significant loss, corporate debt in these countries may be a better bet if you have a view on the company but almost all debt will be denominated in Euros and a withdrawal from the Euro leaves them in a difficult position . One things for sure this is going to be messy either the Euro struggles on getting into further trouble or it breaks up, difficult to see any other option at this point.

Anonymous said...

Thank you, Toni. I still remember back in the late 90s when everyone was saying that the Greek economy shouldn't have been permitted to join the Euro; didn't take long for the chickens to come home to roost.

Kitty Moore said...

Hey Toni!

It's been a while - but I'm back. Good to see that the stalker is back, that woman must really love you!

Kitty x

Kitty Moore said...

You haven't been around for a while - hope all is well x