Sunday 13 January 2008

Fridays P&L: GBP198.00
Yesterdays Booze: 70cl Imperial Russian Vodka, 2 x Bombay Sapphire Martinis, 3 x 500ml Stella Artois, 70 cl cheap French white wine.

So another day, another dollar, the bad feelings in the markets continue. The rumours on Friday where that Merrill Lynch is going to post as much as USD15bn in credit related write-downs and that Citibank is going to post a similar number, despit both institutions claiming they had drawn a line under their losses in the 3rd quarter. These numbers are staggering and unsurprisingly, both institutions are supposedly trawling Asia and the Middle-East for additional capital investment. No doubt the market will respond positively to foreign investment in these companies, but surely America should be questioning itself. For years America has been shifting itself from an industrial economy to a service orientated economy. The financial sector is a key part of the information based economy that the US sees as key to maintaining its pre-eminent position in the world. And yet key components such as Citi and Merrill are being sold piecemeal to foreign governments. It may be too early to count America out, but it is difficult to see where the future of the US is if a worst-case style depression occurs. The phenomenal wealth generated post WW2 may dissapate, just as the baby-boomers need it most. If the government decides to lower rates to kick-start the economy and US treasuries lose their attractiveness to investors then the US will be exposed to inflation and currency devaluation. I have been in a few countries that experienced hyper-inflation and one thing is clear is that the most affected are the middle-class. The USA is ill-placed to withstand a genuine attack of inflation and while I am not quite as doom and gloom laden as legendary investor Julian Roberts, I can see this as being one of the most trying times for the most important economy in the world.

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