Happy New Year

Yesterdays P&L: Nada
Yesterdays Booze: 70cl Select Imperial Vodka, 3x 500ml Stella Artois, 70cl Laurent Perrier Champagne, 500ml Patron XO Cafe, 2lt Irish Dry Cider...

So this in the New Year? It is an important time for Scottish people, but contrary to public opinion we are not all happy at this time of the year. Personally I spend it switching between extreme optimism and absolute melencholy, a lot of it depends on what music is playing - always music, never television. This year has been my worst ever, and this is only the fifth time I have had to say that! It was made worse by being alone, although in my current state, I don't think it is a good idea for me to be around people. I was invited to my younger brothers - Bah, Humbug! Actually I didn't go because I am sick as a dog, also getting across London in my current immobile state is a bit of a challange, I suspect I have broken or chipped a few more of my increasingly flawed bones, in my right ankle and my left knee, but I am limping around, You don't feel a great deal of pain after the first half a litre of booze!

My normal bursts of optimism are somewhat dampened this year because of the activity in the markets. I know the pundits and analysts are predicting the global economy will pull through and my recent track record is poor but I have a nagging suspiscion that we are about to reap the rewards of the easy credit of the last decade. Since September the interbank markets have been paralyised by fear. The finance sector has looked inside the financial alchemy they have created and rewarded a number of people and have realised that they have little or no idea what they have created. As the banks have declined to accept responsibility the central banks have been forced to provide liquidity. For the governments and central banks to bale out a flawed private sector is absurd. Wasn't George W., elected on a premise of minimal government interference in business? Isn't it a basic part of capitalism that companies that cannot survive in the commercial market place should be allowed to fail? The massive debt write-offs from these banks indicate that they are unable to manage their risks, strange because many of these companies had reinvented themselves as risk managers. The fall-out has yet to be seen but there are some examples seeping out, Florida state workers not receiving their pay, obscure towns in Norway cutting back on social benefits and you can be sure that there will soon be many more. The central banks are pumping in liquidity and, significantly, have widened the scope of the collateral they will accept. They are in effect buying time for the financial sector - all the while the dragon of inflation is shimmering in the air. The governments feed you some bizarre inflation number, but it is meaningless. Anyone who doesn't believe inflation is far higher than admitted isn't living in the real world, sure you can buy a chinese DVD player for15 pounds and arn't those big screen LCD screens cheap nowdays but check out the cost of your food and your heating. It is only going to get worse, the ill-informed and enviromentally destructive push for bio-diesel has seen the cost of basic crops spiral, it is inevitable that this will be passed on to the consumer. Another factor we haven't felt yet is the full impact of the rising oil prices. I can't help but laugh when the cheerleaders on CNBC or Bloomberg celebrate the fact that the price of a barrel of crude has gone down to $90. Doesn't anyone remember 2 years ago when all the talk was "could oil reach $60"? Everything we buy is transported by oil and packaged in oil derivatives - sooner or later the prices will be passed on to us. I don't even want to start talking about the environment and carbon emissions, expect a post on that sham soon.

Anyway I will return to my drinking and thoughts, I am quite gloomy just now because the current music is Dire Straits. Mark Knopfler is an extra-ordinary musician and song writer but the song "It Never Rains" from the Love Over Gold album has to be the saddest song I have ever heard. I wonder what it means when he sings " I hear the Seven Deadly Sins
And the Terrible Twins came to call on you" What are the terrible twins - anyone who knows, educate me please.